414
FXUS63 KDDC 070707
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
207 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably cool temperatures today with rain and cloudy
  skies.

- A huge upper level ridge in the western CONUS slowly moves
  towards the central plains by mid week.


- A drier and hot weather pattern is expected by the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

07Z observations continue to show a large area of rain extending
along and west of a Scott City to Medicine Lodge line. The rain
and storms are a result of a stalled frontal boundary along the
US 160 corridor and a surface low in southeast Colorado and an
upper level shortwave moving in from east central Colorado. The
low level jet which strengthen around 02-03 Z is continuing to
bring in moisture as moisture transport and moisture convergence
levels are high across southwest Kansas and PWAT values are
around 1 inch.

The main weather story of today will be the continued rain
through the morning and early afternoon in southwest Kansas
combining with cloudy skies leading to unseasonably cool
temperatures for July 7th. Average highs should be in the low
90s but with the clouds and east to northeast winds and periodic
showers this will keep highs mainly in the middle 70s to lower
80s. NBM4.2 probabilities have 25-50% chance of highs today
staying below 80 degrees which is a good 10-15 degrees below
average. Flooding potential will continue through the morning as
some radar estimates had 3-6 inches from Scott and Lane counties
through Gray and Finney counties. The morning rains could bring
another 1-2 inches mainly along and east of a Scott City to
Larned line and since the ground has been saturated from
previous rains the potential for flash flooding and areal
flooding is going to remain high through at least the early
afternoon hours. With the atmosphere worked over and the gust
front/outflow boundary more into northern Oklahoma the severe
threat should be much lower for this afternoon with the higher
risk in northern Oklahoma.

Tonight rain chances should diminish for all of southwest Kansas
with the exception of along the Oklahoma border. After tonight
with the upcoming ridge and hotter air moving into the central
plains this should be the last of the highest chances of rain
for at least a week. Long range ensembles will keep a trough in
the central and northern plains through mid week which should
keep our high temperatures mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
THe upper level winds should also steer the remnants of Beryl
well to the east so we aren`t expecting any tropical moisture to
move in.

The return of the hot air should make it into the central plains
by Friday and Saturday as the 598 dm heat bubble is shown by the
long range ensembles to be centered over the 4 corners region.
High temperatures greater than 95 degrees will be in the 70-90%
range for all of southwest Kansas for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Active weather will continue across southwest Kansas for Sunday
morning as periodic showers and thunderstorms will lead to VCTS
for all terminals through 00Z Monday. Greatest probability of
storms will be around GCK and DDC as storms are already in the
vicinity of both terminals as of 05Z. Storms could contain brief
heavy rainfall which will reduce surface visibilities. Cloud
ceilings will hover between VFR and MVFR depending on the
location of the thunderstorms before returning to predominately
VFR after 00Z. Wind direction will be variable through 12Z due
to the numerous thunderstorms and outflow boundaries.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ043>046-
062>066-077>081-087>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro