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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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492 FXUS63 KDDC 041714 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and less humid weather will arrive today in the wake of a cold front. - There are medium chances for t-storms Saturday and Sunday and smaller chances Tuesday and Wednesday, along with slightly below average temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A strong upper level system by early July standards that brought a round of showers and thunderstorms overnight will progress into the upper Midwest today and push a cold front through western Kansas this morning. After some lingering early morning t-storms ahead of the front, drier air will sweep into Kansas today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The drier air and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 50s (Scott City) to lower 60s in south central Kansas by Friday morning. A succession of upper level disturbances will progress into the central and northern plains and upper Midwest this weekend and into early to mid next week. However, the main upper level trough will gradually shift eastward by mid next week. The first upper level impulse will affect western Kansas Saturday, with south winds, low level moisture and warmer air developing by mid-day in advance of the system. An anomalous 500mb cold pool (-10 to -12C) will also arrive Saturday, leading to steepening lapse rates. Given the anomalously strong westerly flow at mid and upper levels given the time of year, vertical wind shear profiles may become favorable for severe storms during the early to late afternoon, with large hail the main concern. Temperatures Saturday could reach near 90. On the heels of the Saturday system, another upper level impulse will dig southeastward into the northern plains Sunday. Low level moisture will still be in place, but there is uncertainty in how much of a negative impact (cooling effect) Saturday`s storms will have on instability for Sunday. However, given the expected strong forcing for ascent, thunderstorms are a good possibility, but severity is questionable given the uncertainty about instability. This system will push a cold front through western Kansas Sunday night so that Monday should be drier and stable. For the Saturday and Sunday period, the EPS, ICON and CMCE ensemble means show a potential heavy rain signal, particularly across central Kansas, where 24-hr probabilities of > 1" of rain are from 20 to 40%. Expect slightly cooler highs in the lower to upper 80s Sunday given the expected clouds and possible episodes of precipitation. Although the main upper level trough will progressing into the upper Midwest by mid next week, the ensemble means of the ECMWF, EPS and CMCE indicate weak disturbances approaching Kansas from the northwest on the back side of the main trough. Given the relatively cold air at 500mb by early July standards (-9C), there could be just enough heating and moisture in the presence of very weak mid level capping to yield another round or two of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, and possibly again Wednesday. However, the potential for widespread heavy rain is much less during this period, with the EPS, ICON and CMCE ensemble means showing very low chances (10-20% or less) of 24-hr rainfall exceeding 1". Thus, expect the Tuesday and Wednesday thunderstorm activity to be more scattered in nature. High temperatures will likely be in the 85 to 90 degree range for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 BUFR soundings this morning from the CAMS showing areas of low clouds in the 1500 to 25000ft AGL at 18z will give way to clear skies by 20z as north winds usher in some cooler and drier air into western Kansas. After 00z Friday these northerly winds at 10 to 15 knots will decrease to less than 10 knots and begin to gradually veer to the east as an area of high pressure at the surface begins to build into western Kansas from the north northwest. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Burgert