784
FXUS63 KDDC 042008
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
308 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clear skies early tonight with a north northeast wind at 5 to
  15 mph.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures (80s-lower 90s) expected late
  this weekend and early next week with a chance for isolated to
  widely scattered late day/overnight thunderstorms.

- A warming trend returns to southwest Kansas towards the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Cooler and drier air in the lower levels was moving into
southwest Kansas earlier this Thursday afternoon as an area of
high pressure at the surface gradually builds in from the north-
northwest. At 2 PM, a surface boundary was nearly stationary,
extending from western Oklahoma into New Mexico. This boundary
will be the main focus for showers and thunderstorms early
tonight, resulting in a dry evening for 4th of July events
across all of southwest Kansas.

After midnight, the latest CAM models show veering and warm air
advection developing north of this boundary as moisture
improves in an area of improving 700mb frontogenesis that will
be developing south and west of the Dodge City area. This
increasing moisture and lift late tonight will bring increasing
clouds and a chance for early morning rain showers and
thunderstorms for areas west and south of the Dodge City area.
This early morning convection is expected to taper off by noon.
Late Friday afternoon we will also monitor an area of mid level
instability and lift developing ahead of a 400mb PVU approaching
southwest Kansas from the northwest. This will likely result in
increasing clouds, but the chance for significant precipitation
appears low. At this time, the chance for any accumulation
greater than 0.01 inches is less than 10%, so no precipitation
will be introduced into the forecast. Also on Sunday we will have
increasing clouds along with a chance for thunderstorm as the
next in the series of upper level waves embedded in the
northwest flow is then forecast to cross western Kansas.


For this upcoming weekend...Ensembles remain in good agreement
today with an upper level ridge, located along the west coast of
the United States, strengthening through the start of the
weekend as an upper level trough deepens and moves towards the
Great Lakes Region. This will result in a developing northwest
flow regime across the Rockies and the Central United States.
Short term models are also aligning better in terms of the
timing and track of the first upper level trough that will be
moving along this northwest flow from western Canada into the
central United States on Saturday. Ahead of this approaching
upper trough, improving downslope flow will strengthen. Based on
the mean 850mb temperatures from 00z Saturday and 00z Sunday, a
brief warming trend can be expected. This warming trend will
not be as pronounced as those earlier this week, but highs are
expected to rebound from the low to mid-80s into the upper 80s
to lower 90s by Saturday afternoon. These warm temperatures will
occur just ahead of a cold front, which is currently forecast
to cross western Kansas late Saturday night or early Sunday as
the first upper level trough moves across the Central Plains.

A cold front crossing southwest Kansas will bring a 30-50%
chance of thunderstorms to southwest Kansas and allow for
another push of cooler air to return to the area late this
weekend. This cooldown, with highs on Sunday and Monday between
80-85F is based on the ongoing run to run consistency of the
NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble 850mb mean temps and climatological
percentiles. These models for the past few days have be showing
these forecast 850mb temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in
the cool 10th to 25th climatological percentile. This is very
similar to what they have been showing for southwest Kansas for
today (Thursday). At 2pm today the temperatures across western
Kansas in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Additionally, the ensemble
clusters indicate less than a 20% chance for highs on Sunday
and Monday to exceed 85F.

For next week, ensemble clusters agree (>70%) on the eastward
progression of the upper ridge towards the Rockies. As a result,
the northwesterly flow aloft will gradually back more to the
west, improving westerly downslope flow and leading to a midweek
warmup. While the exact temperature increase is uncertain,
there is potential for highs in the low to mid 90s to be
possible by mid week. The current guidance indicates a 40-60%
chance of highs exceeding 90F. Next week we will also see
almost daily opportunities for late day and overnight
convection. A developing trough over eastern Colorado will be
the focus for scattered late day storms, with some of these
storms possibly moving into portions of western Kansas before
dissipating. Subtle waves embedded in the flow will cross the
Central Plains, contributing to this activity. Although all
ensembles show these subtle waves crossing the Plains next week,
they differ on timing and track. This variability is typical
given the difficulty in detecting these subtle features. While
this pattern is not indicative of a widespread accumulating
rainfall event, isolated to scattered storms cannot be ruled
out, especially west of Highway 283.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

BUFR soundings this morning from the CAMS showing areas of low
clouds in the 1500 to 25000ft AGL at 18z will give way to clear
skies by 20z as north winds usher in some cooler and drier air
into western Kansas. After 00z Friday these northerly winds at
10 to 15 knots will decrease to less than 10 knots and begin to
gradually veer to the east as an area of high pressure at the
surface begins to build into western Kansas from the north
northwest.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert