364
FXUS63 KDDC 010530
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drying out for the most part, although some storms possible
  late tonight along Interstate 70

- Hot tomorrow with a chance of storms NW counties

- Hot Tuesday and then another MCS pattern developing thereafter

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The FA will dry out this afternoon as any shower activity diminishes
with time. There still is upslope flow across eastern Colorado this
afternoon. As such, I would expect late afternoon and evening storms
developing in this region. This activity should not impact much of
the FA with the exception across the Interstate 70 corridor late
tonight. By the time it gets to the FA, would expect the only threat
to be lightning and some brief heavy rainfall. Otherwise, the rest
of the FA will see quiet weather with near normal lows.

For Monday, the lee trough will deepen during the day. A bit of downslope
SSW winds are expected across a portion of the FA. As such, do expect
hotter highs Monday with values in the mid to upper 90s. One exception
to this is for the areas that experienced the heaviest rainfall Sunday.
This area is the Dodge City to Bucklin to Coldwater to Mullinville
communities. Heating might be slowed a little with the very wet ground
here and went with slightly cooler highs. There might be evening storms
developing across the NW counties Monday evening and possibly expanding
east as the night continues across the Interstate 70 corridor. The
main threat with this activity would be strong/gusty winds and brief
moderate to heavy rainfall. The rest of the FA should be dry.

More hot highs looks likely Tuesday. EPS has >90% probabilities of
>90F for much of the FA. The main exception to this is across the
NW zones, which is in closer proximity to an approaching weak front.
This front looks to eventually stall out Wednesday across the state.
Storms will be possible in association with this boundary. The 20%
to 60% pops from the NBM looks good enough for now to capture this
storm potential. The upslope flow pattern, which is an MCS pattern
may continue somewhat Thursday but with better chances Friday.
Highs wouldn`t likely bet as hot under this potentially wetter
weather pattern to close out the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Surface observations across southwest KS reveal widespread low
stratus is in place, bringing MVFR/IFR cigs to all terminals.
Over the next few hours, cigs are expected to rise and reach VFR
at all terminals by 15Z. Otherwise, current southeasterly winds
aoa 12 kts will gradually shift to south-southwesterly by mid-
morning Monday, followed by an increase into the 15-20 kt range
with gusts of 25-30 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Springer