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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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103 FXUS63 KDDC 042200 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 500 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clear skies early tonight with a north northeast wind at 5 to 15 mph. - Unseasonably cool temperatures (80s-lower 90s) expected late this weekend and early next week with a chance for isolated to widely scattered late day/overnight thunderstorms. - A warming trend returns to southwest Kansas towards the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Cooler and drier air in the lower levels was moving into southwest Kansas earlier this Thursday afternoon as an area of high pressure at the surface gradually builds in from the north- northwest. At 2 PM, a surface boundary was nearly stationary, extending from western Oklahoma into New Mexico. This boundary will be the main focus for showers and thunderstorms early tonight, resulting in a dry evening for 4th of July events across all of southwest Kansas. After midnight, the latest CAM models show veering and warm air advection developing north of this boundary as moisture improves in an area of improving 700mb frontogenesis that will be developing south and west of the Dodge City area. This increasing moisture and lift late tonight will bring increasing clouds and a chance for early morning rain showers and thunderstorms for areas west and south of the Dodge City area. This early morning convection is expected to taper off by noon. Late Friday afternoon we will also monitor an area of mid level instability and lift developing ahead of a 400mb PVU approaching southwest Kansas from the northwest. This will likely result in increasing clouds, but the chance for significant precipitation appears low. At this time, the chance for any accumulation greater than 0.01 inches is less than 10%, so no precipitation will be introduced into the forecast. Also on Sunday we will have increasing clouds along with a chance for thunderstorm as the next in the series of upper level waves embedded in the northwest flow is then forecast to cross western Kansas. For this upcoming weekend...Ensembles remain in good agreement today with an upper level ridge, located along the west coast of the United States, strengthening through the start of the weekend as an upper level trough deepens and moves towards the Great Lakes Region. This will result in a developing northwest flow regime across the Rockies and the Central United States. Short term models are also aligning better in terms of the timing and track of the first upper level trough that will be moving along this northwest flow from western Canada into the central United States on Saturday. Ahead of this approaching upper trough, improving downslope flow will strengthen. Based on the mean 850mb temperatures from 00z Saturday and 00z Sunday, a brief warming trend can be expected. This warming trend will not be as pronounced as those earlier this week, but highs are expected to rebound from the low to mid-80s into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Saturday afternoon. These warm temperatures will occur just ahead of a cold front, which is currently forecast to cross western Kansas late Saturday night or early Sunday as the first upper level trough moves across the Central Plains. A cold front crossing southwest Kansas will bring a 30-50% chance of thunderstorms to southwest Kansas and allow for another push of cooler air to return to the area late this weekend. This cooldown, with highs on Sunday and Monday between 80-85F is based on the ongoing run to run consistency of the NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble 850mb mean temps and climatological percentiles. These models for the past few days have be showing these forecast 850mb temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the cool 10th to 25th climatological percentile. This is very similar to what they have been showing for southwest Kansas for today (Thursday). At 2pm today the temperatures across western Kansas in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Additionally, the ensemble clusters indicate less than a 20% chance for highs on Sunday and Monday to exceed 85F. For next week, ensemble clusters agree (>70%) on the eastward progression of the upper ridge towards the Rockies. As a result, the northwesterly flow aloft will gradually back more to the west, improving westerly downslope flow and leading to a midweek warmup. While the exact temperature increase is uncertain, there is potential for highs in the low to mid 90s to be possible by mid week. The current guidance indicates a 40-60% chance of highs exceeding 90F. Next week we will also see almost daily opportunities for late day and overnight convection. A developing trough over eastern Colorado will be the focus for scattered late day storms, with some of these storms possibly moving into portions of western Kansas before dissipating. Subtle waves embedded in the flow will cross the Central Plains, contributing to this activity. Although all ensembles show these subtle waves crossing the Plains next week, they differ on timing and track. This variability is typical given the difficulty in detecting these subtle features. While this pattern is not indicative of a widespread accumulating rainfall event, isolated to scattered storms cannot be ruled out, especially west of Highway 283. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR is expected for much of the period. There is a chance of MVFR cigs at KLBL in the morning. This is in association with a weak wave moving through, which may result in lower cigs and VCSH. Otherwise, VFR is expected for KGCK, KDDC, and KHYS. N to NE 5-15 kt will become light and variable overnight as high pressure builds southward across the terminals. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Sugden