936
FXUS63 KDDC 022222
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
522 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms on Tuesday hold a severe threat across most
  of SW Kansas.

- Widespread thunderstorms Wednesday currently only amount to a
  marginal risk via the SPC.

- Independence Day, and the rest of the forecast period, will be
  mostly dry and cool with highs in the 80-90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

As the upper-level trough persists overhead, the surface cold front
has stalled across SW Kansas with benign showers along it. CAMs have
had it moving east later in the afternoon although comparatively it
has moved much slower. This casts doubt on convection developing
along the front after leaves the forecast area. This comes in two
parts, both that the convection could develop sooner and take place
over the forecast area, and second that the convection may not
initiate and develop as expected. Barber county almost unanimously
has some convection across CAMs, but the strength and coverage is
under large scrutiny.

Later into Tuesday, most CAMs have more discrete cells moving into
Kansas from Colorado. Almost every 12Z CAM had a strong supercell
signal somewhere in the western zones. However, the latest 18Z HRRR
run has no such signal despite consistently holding one through the
17Z runs. Lingering cloud cover from the stalled front may be to
blame for this. Regardless, this creates more difficulty in an
already uncertain storm setup. Plenty of environmental ingredients
exist for storms that are able to develop with the exception of
shear being quite marginal. NAMNST forecast soundings have CAPE
>2500 J/kg and 0-3 SRH >150 m2/s2 near the KS/CO border. The severe
threat will primarily be wind and hail, but tornadoes can not be
ruled out if a strong supercell can develop and maintain itself.

After the severe threat into the overnight, CAMs show a spattering
of precipitation, with ensembles placing a >25% chance for
accumulation across the majority of SW Kansas. Around 1Z, another
weaker cold front is expected to move through the forecast area via
ensembles. The cold front will again shift the winds to being from
the NW. CAMs have convection initiating along most of the front, with
very little precipitation behind it. Our northern zones boast the
best chances (>40% from ensembles) for precipitation.

As the last of the convection in our northern zones moves out and
the cold front passes over SW Kansas a slightly cooler airmass takes
residence over the forecast area. Additionally, the wind shift to
the NW after the cold front passage will result in CAA further
adding to cool temperatures on Independence Day. Ensembles have
highs in the 80s across the majority of SW Kansas.

Friday through the rest of the forecast period will be mostly dry
and host seasonably cool temperatures as our previous upper-level
trough pattern gives way to a more ridge dominated regime. This
pattern assists in transporting cool, dry air from the far northwest
CONUS. Long range ensembles have highs in the 70s and 80s and do not
show a meaningful accumulation signal (>0.1) other than Sunday night
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late evening. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will then
be possible overnight, potentially affecting the vicinity of all TAF
sites generally after 05-07Z. Low level stratus and areas of patchy
fog may develop within a moist/easterly upslope flow toward daybreak
Wedmesday morning, resulting in potential MVFR cigs/vsbys through
mid-day Wednesday. Light east-northeast winds are expected to persist
through much of the period as a weak cold front sinking southward
through southwest and south central Kansas, stalls out near and along
the Oklahoma border this evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...JJohnson