Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
868 ACUS48 KWNS 020903 SWOD48 SPC AC 020902 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday Midwest and Ohio Valley... While modest predictability continues to preclude a 15+ percent severe risk at this juncture, it seems probable that severe thunderstorm potential will be focused within a moist and unstable air mass near and ahead of an east/southeastward-moving cold front. This is most probable across the Ohio Valley and other parts of the Midwest/Lake Erie vicinity including states such as Kentucky and Ohio. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common severe hazard. ...Day 5/Saturday... Severe-thunderstorm potential should spread eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States in relation to the low-amplitude shortwave trough and eastward-moving cold front. Other at least isolated severe storms may occur across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, generally related to an amplifying shortwave trough and weak front. Risk magnitude uncertainties preclude 15+ percent severe risk areas. ...Days 6-8 Sunday-Tuesday... Daily severe-weather potential can be expected, although specific predictability is limited into this time frame, as is typical for this season. Early estimates are that severe-storm potential could increase across the south-central Plains to Upper Midwest on Day 6/Sunday. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024