005
FXUS61 KCTP 071822
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
222 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* Dry and seasonably hot today with more comfortable humidity
* Increasing heat and humidity returns for early this week with
  max heat index values around 100 in parts of south central PA
  again Monday through Wednesday
* The best chance of rain/t-storms will be later Wednesday as
  deep, tropical moisture from Beryl is funneled north from the
  Gulf coast states

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure across the Ohio Valley into western PA making for
a dry and seasonable early July afternoon. Expect cumulus clouds
to continue with peak heating today, along with some cirrus
streaming in from the southwest.

Very Warm to hot temps in the low 80s to low 90s are expected
this afternoon with plenty of sunshine and more comfortable
dewpoint temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another mainly clear night with patchy to areas of valley fog
across northern PA as the center of high pressure slides
overhead.

Minimum temperatures tonight look similar to early this Sunday,
bottoming out around 60 in the northern tier to 70 near the
Mason-Dixon line.

Diurnally driven, albeit isolated, showers and thunderstorms
are possible on Monday afternoon with the easterly/southeasterly
flow on the back side of the departing high bringing an
increase of low level moisture/humidity back to central
Pennsylvania.

Heat index values are likely to approach 100F again on Monday
afternoon in south central to southeast PA.

Increasing clouds are likely Monday night as a result of the
combination of wind flow and positive moisture flux. As a
result, lows on Monday night will be a bit milder in the 65-75F
range (+10-15F above climo), making it feel quite muggy once
again as dewpoints remain in the same range. Fog will be possible
in locations that get rain, but clouds and southeast flow should
limit radiational cooling and the extent/thickness of the fog.

Lowered shower/storm chances for Tuesday given neutral to
positive height tendencies as the remnants of Beryl and a mid-
latitude trough slowly phase in the Mississippi Valley. Will
still see some terrain-induced storms pop along with additional
convection along outflow boundaries, but large scale forcing
looks negligible at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As we move into the middle of the week, guidance depicts a
pattern of unsettled weather with southwesterly flow bringing a
plume of tropical moisture.

The latest forecast cone from NHC brings the center of Beryl
through the Ohio Valley as it weakens to a post-tropical
depression and gets absorbed by a midlatitude trough. Even if
the remnant circulation passes well to our west, the gradient
between the low pressure system and strengthening high pressure
over Bermuda will result in a conveyor belt of deep tropical
moisture with PWAT progged to exceed 2.00 inches over much of
central PA between Wed afternoon and Thursday. Also of note, the
GFS is showing the freezing level between 13-15kft Wed-Thu,
suggesting efficient warm rain processes.

The highest PoPs look to be Wednesday afternoon into Wed night,
although we will likely see continued chc/slight chc PoPs right
into next weekend (peaking with the daytime heating each
aftn/eve). A reasonable worst case scenario for 24 hr rainfall
is 2.00-2.50 inches from Wed-Thu afternoon, as per the NBM 90th
percentile.

Not surprisingly, given the tropical nature of the airmass, WPC
has painted a slight risk for excessive rainfall over some of
northern Pennsylvnia. Farther south, where conditions over the
past few months have been much drier, any rainfall coming this
week will largely be beneficial.

In terms of heat and humidity, the extended period looks to
feature a continuation of the warm and humid weather we`ve been
seeing recently. Heat index values will have a shot at the low
100s again Wednesday in the lower Susq valley, especially if
clouds/precip hold off until later Wed afternoon or Wed night. A
shot of somewhat less humid air (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints)
appears likely behind the remnants of Beryl late Thursday into
Friday across western zones, but the tropical moisture will be
slow to move out of the east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will provide widespread VFR conditions today,
with a light westerly wind about 5 kts expected. Scattered high
level clouds and fair weather cu are expected, but beyond that
mostly sunny skies are going to be prevalent.

Mostly clear skies tonight will provide effective radiational
cooling for much of central PA. Patchy fog is once again
possible across the NW airfields. BFD will likely see visibility
restrictions during the early morning hours on Monday, and vsby
restrictions can not be ruled out at other airfields such as
IPT.

After Mon morning fog dissipates, the rest of the day looks VFR
with sct to bkn cu forming between 3500 and 5000 ft.

Outlook...

Tue...Scattered mainly afternoon showers/storms, otherwise VFR

Wed-Thu...More numerous SHRA/TSRA causing restrictions

Fri...Scattered mainly afternoon showers/storms, otherwise VFR

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guseman/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Guseman/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Guseman/Lambert
LONG TERM...Evanego/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen