Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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720 FXUS61 KCTP 060803 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 403 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * A shower or thunderstorm in a few spots this morning; otherwise a dry/rain-free first weekend of July for most * Hot & humid through early next week; max heat index around 100 in parts of south central PA Saturday/Monday/Tuesday PM * Best chance of rain/t-storms next Tuesday PM; wetter pattern may setup for later next week with eye on moisture from Beryl && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Hires models did a reasonably good job in showing uptick in convection early this morning across the Coal Region from Northumberland into southern Columbia/northern Schuylkill Counties. SPC mesoanalysis shows moisture convergence and theta-e advection focused into this area ahead of a weak and diffuse cold front crossing the western Alleghenies. Aside from a shower or t-storm in spots this morning, hires models and ensemble data signal a largely dry start to first weekend of July across the majority of CPA. Best chance (~20%) of a stray PM shower or t-storm will be over the far southeast zones (ahead of the front) and downwind of Lake Erie (lake breeze). Today will be hot and humid with max HX peaking around 100F across the lower Susq Valley -- where a heat advisory remains in effect until 8pm. Highs will reach the 80-95F range from NW-SE which is +5-10F above the historical average for early July at most sites. Mainly clear tonight as high pressure builds into the western part of the Commonwealth. Noticeably less humid air (pwats get cut in half) will arrive for most of the area with more comfortable min temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the northwest half of the CWA -- where river/stream valley fog should develop overnight into early Sunday morning. Conditions will remain rather muggy/sticky over the lower Susq with lows around 70F. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Hot temps in the low 80s to low 90s again on Sunday with plenty of sunshine and slightly reduced/lower humidity. Great pool wx. Min temps Sunday night look similar to Saturday night with more fog across the northern tier. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon with easterly/southeasterly flow bringing an increase of llvl moisture back to central Pennsylvania. The wind flow and positive moisture flux will signal more clouds and higher lows Monday night in the 65-75F range (+10-15F above climo). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... We could be in for a stretch of unsettled weather by the middle and later portion of next week, as southwesterly flow tries to bring some of the remnant moisture from what is left of Beryl up the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region. If we tap into some of this tropical moisture, we could be in for showers/storms and locally heavy downpours for the middle to later portion of next week. Regardless of how much tropical moisture makes it this far north next week, it looks like we`ll see a continuation of very warm and humid weather. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered showers, and possibly some thunder, will approach from the Ohio Valley later this evening and should push northeastward across the area through the overnight. A few showers have also developed across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and will impact the area. Visibility restrictions are possible with these showers. Ensemble guidance suggests that we will see a period of MVFR cigs later tonight into Saturday morning over the western (BFD, JST) highlands and the central mountains (AOO, UNV, and possibly IPT). The western highlands may see cigs dip to IFR for a few hours centered around daybreak (~60% chc). Improvement is expected areawide on Saturday, with all airfields returning to VFR conds by afternoon. Winds during Saturday afternoon could become gusty for a few hours with gusts likely to be between 15-20kts across the region until just after sundown. Outlook... Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise, no sig wx expected with slightly lower humidity. Mon...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected. Tue-Wed...Scattered showers/storms and restrictions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ036-056-057- 059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Evanego/NPB AVIATION...Evanego/Bowen