177
FXUS61 KCTP 061559
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1159 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* A stray shower or thunderstorm possible acrs the far NW and SE
  parts of the CWA this afternoon; otherwise a dry/rain-free
  first weekend of July for most
* Hot & humid through early next week; max heat index around
  100 in parts of south central PA Saturday/Monday/Tuesday PM
* Best chance of rain/t-storms next Tuesday PM; wetter pattern
  may setup for later next week with eye on moisture from Beryl

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CAMS guidance and their ensembles show a speckling of showers
developing across Central PA and the Susq Valley this afternoon
as a well-defined pocket of cooler air aloft accompanies a weak cold
frontal passage.

SFC based CAPE values between 500-1000 off the HREF and slightly
higher via the latest, 15Z RAP run indicates that a few of the
showers could grow into low-topped TSRA to the east of the Susq
Mainstem during the mid to late afternoon right along the
cfront.

However, llvl convergence is greatly lacking along the front so
the current, dry forecast looks like the way to go for today.

Best chance (~20%) of a stray PM shower or t-storm will be over
the far southeast zones (ahead of the front) and downwind of
Lake Erie (lake breeze).

Today will be hot and humid with max HX peaking around 100F
across the lower Susq Valley -- where a heat advisory remains in
effect until 8pm. Highs will reach the 80-95F range from NW-SE
which is +5-10F above the historical average for early July at
most sites.

Mainly clear tonight as high pressure builds into the western
part of the Commonwealth. Noticeably less humid air (pwats get
cut in half) will arrive for most of the area with more
comfortable min temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the
northwest half of the CWA -- where river/stream valley fog
should develop overnight into early Sunday morning. Conditions
will remain rather muggy/sticky over the lower Susq with lows
around 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Hot temps in the low 80s to low 90s again on Sunday with plenty
of sunshine and slightly reduced/lower humidity. Great pool wx.
Min temps Sunday night look similar to Saturday night with more
fog across the northern tier.

Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Monday afternoon with easterly/southeasterly flow bringing an
increase of llvl moisture back to central Pennsylvania. The wind
flow and positive moisture flux will signal more clouds and higher
lows Monday night in the 65-75F range (+10-15F above climo).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We could be in for a stretch of unsettled weather by the middle
and later portion of next week, as southwesterly flow tries to
bring some of the remnant moisture from what is left of Beryl up
the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region. If we tap
into some of this tropical moisture, we could be in for
showers/storms and locally heavy downpours for the middle to
later portion of next week.

Regardless of how much tropical moisture makes it this far
north next week, it looks like we`ll see a continuation of very
warm and humid weather.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
All airfields will be sct-bkn VFR cu/mdt cu through this
afternoon. Winds during this afternoon could become gusty for a
few hours with gusts likely to be between 15-20kts across the
region until just after sundown. High pressure will be building
in tonight and VFR conditions are expected to persist into
Sunday.

Outlook...

Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise, no sig wx expected with
slightly lower humidity.

Mon...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Tue-Wed...Scattered showers/storms and restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Evanego/NPB
AVIATION...Lambert/Evanego/Bowen