720
FXUS61 KCTP 060803
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
403 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* A shower or thunderstorm in a few spots this morning;
  otherwise a dry/rain-free first weekend of July for most
* Hot & humid through early next week; max heat index around
  100 in parts of south central PA Saturday/Monday/Tuesday PM
* Best chance of rain/t-storms next Tuesday PM; wetter pattern
  may setup for later next week with eye on moisture from Beryl

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Hires models did a reasonably good job in showing uptick in
convection early this morning across the Coal Region from
Northumberland into southern Columbia/northern Schuylkill
Counties. SPC mesoanalysis shows moisture convergence and
theta-e advection focused into this area ahead of a weak and
diffuse cold front crossing the western Alleghenies.

Aside from a shower or t-storm in spots this morning, hires
models and ensemble data signal a largely dry start to first
weekend of July across the majority of CPA. Best chance (~20%)
of a stray PM shower or t-storm will be over the far southeast
zones (ahead of the front) and downwind of Lake Erie (lake
breeze).

Today will be hot and humid with max HX peaking around 100F
across the lower Susq Valley -- where a heat advisory remains in
effect until 8pm. Highs will reach the 80-95F range from NW-SE
which is +5-10F above the historical average for early July at
most sites.

Mainly clear tonight as high pressure builds into the western
part of the Commonwealth. Noticeably less humid air (pwats get
cut in half) will arrive for most of the area with more
comfortable min temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the
northwest half of the CWA -- where river/stream valley fog
should develop overnight into early Sunday morning. Conditions
will remain rather muggy/sticky over the lower Susq with lows
around 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Hot temps in the low 80s to low 90s again on Sunday with plenty
of sunshine and slightly reduced/lower humidity. Great pool wx.
Min temps Sunday night look similar to Saturday night with more
fog across the northern tier.

Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Monday afternoon with easterly/southeasterly flow bringing an
increase of llvl moisture back to central Pennsylvania. The wind
flow and positive moisture flux will signal more clouds and higher
lows Monday night in the 65-75F range (+10-15F above climo).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We could be in for a stretch of unsettled weather by the middle
and later portion of next week, as southwesterly flow tries to
bring some of the remnant moisture from what is left of Beryl up
the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region. If we tap
into some of this tropical moisture, we could be in for
showers/storms and locally heavy downpours for the middle to
later portion of next week.

Regardless of how much tropical moisture makes it this far
north next week, it looks like we`ll see a continuation of very
warm and humid weather.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers, and possibly some thunder, will approach
from the Ohio Valley later this evening and should push
northeastward across the area through the overnight. A few
showers have also developed across the Lower Susquehanna Valley
and will impact the area. Visibility restrictions are possible
with these showers.

Ensemble guidance suggests that we will see a period of MVFR
cigs later tonight into Saturday morning over the western (BFD,
JST) highlands and the central mountains (AOO, UNV, and possibly
IPT). The western highlands may see cigs dip to IFR for a few
hours centered around daybreak (~60% chc).

Improvement is expected areawide on Saturday, with all
airfields returning to VFR conds by afternoon. Winds during
Saturday afternoon could become gusty for a few hours with
gusts likely to be between 15-20kts across the region until just
after sundown.

Outlook...

Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise, no sig wx expected with
slightly lower humidity.

Mon...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Tue-Wed...Scattered showers/storms and restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Evanego/NPB
AVIATION...Evanego/Bowen