Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
443 FXUS61 KCTP 070316 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1116 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * A dry/rain-free first weekend of July continues tomorrow * Turning hot & humid through early next week; max heat index around 100 in parts of south central PA again Monday and Tuesday * Best chance of rain/t-storms next Tuesday PM; wetter pattern may setup for later next week as moisture from Beryl approaches && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Diurnal cumulus have dissipated this evening with the only low cloud still evident along the ridgetops in the Laurel Highlands. Expect clear skies overnight with calm winds as high pressure and more comfortable dewpoints settle into the region. Dewpoint depressions across the northwest are already only a few degrees, so expecting some valley fog to develop there and perhaps as far south as the Allegheny Front. A much more comfortable night is in store for all but the urban areas in our SE zones where lows will likely stay at or just above 70F. Elsewhere, expect lows in the 50s and 60s. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Very Warm to hot temps in the low 80s to low 90s are expected again on Sunday with abundant sunshine, a mix of high-based cu and cirrus and slightly reduced/lower humidity. Great weather for outdoor summer activities, but stay hydrated with breaks in the shade or indoors. The lower humidity will keep heat index values in check, but actual temperatures will be very similar to Saturday afternoon. Min temps Sunday night look similar to tonight with additional valley fog expected across the northern tier. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon with easterly/southeasterly flow bringing an increase of llvl moisture back to central Pennsylvania. Have kept isolated wording in the forecast as it seems coverage will be widely scattered/isolated with most places staying rain-free. Heat index values are likely to approach 100F again on Monday afternoon in the southeast. Increasing clouds are likely Monday night as a result of the combination of wind flow and positive moisture flux. As a result, lows on Monday night will be a bit milder and in the 65-75F range (+10-15F above climo). Fog possible again in locations that get rain, but clouds and southeast flow should limit radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As we move into the middle and end of next week, guidance depicts a pattern of unsettled weather with southwesterly flow potentially bringing moisture associated with the remnants of Beryl into the area. The highest PoPs look to be centered around Wednesday, although we will likely see continued chc/slight chc PoPs right into next weekend (peaking with the daytime heating each aftn/eve). Not surprisingly, given the tropical origins of the airmass, WPC has painted a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall for portions of Central PA in the Tues night to Wed night timeframe. Regardless of day-to-day PoPs, the extended period looks to feature a continuation of the warm and humid weather we`ve been seeing recently. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Winds will diminish and skies will clear overnight, outside of some mid-level clouds passing over the Lower Susq Valley during the early overnight hours. Patchy fog should develop in the pre-dawn hours, esp in the valleys of N/W PA, as shown in the BFD TAF. Otherwise, VFR conds should prevail for much of central PA overnight. High pressure will provide widespread VFR conditions on Sunday, with a light westerly wind ~5 kts expected. Outlook... Mon...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected. Tue-Thu...Scattered mainly afternoon showers/storms and restrictions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Banghoff NEAR TERM...Lambert/Banghoff SHORT TERM...Lambert/Banghoff LONG TERM...Evanego/NPB AVIATION...Evanego