435
FXUS61 KCTP 070919
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
519 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and very warm to hot condition today, but with more
comfortable humidity.

Increasing heat and humidity returns for early in the upcoming
week with max heat index values around 100 in parts of south
central PA again Monday and Tuesday.

The best chance of rain/t-storms will be Tuesday afternoon. A
wetter pattern may setup for later this week as deep, tropical
moisture from Beryl is funneled north from the Gulf coast
states.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure building in from the Ohio Valley supplied us with
calm winds and more comfortable dewpoints overnight, allowing
T/Td spreads to greatly narrow and even reach zero throughout
the deeper valleys of northern PA where Nighttime microphysics
imagery shows a fairly extensive dendritic fog pattern.

The fog will dissipate between 12-13z as vertical mixing slowly
deepens within the very light boundary layer flow.

Sunrise temps will be generally above 70F across the Lower Susq
Valley. Elsewhere, expect lows will range from the mid 50s in
the coldest valleys up north and across Somerset county with 60s
found throughout much of the Central Ridge and Valley region.

Very Warm to hot temps in the low 80s to low 90s are expected
again on Sunday with abundant sunshine, a mix of high-based cu
and cirrus and slightly reduced/lower humidity. Great weather
for outdoor summer activities, but stay hydrated with breaks in
the shade or indoors. The lower humidity will keep heat index
values in check, but actual temperatures will be very similar to
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Another mainly clear night with patchy to areas of of valley fog
across Northern PA once again as the center of high pressure
slides overhead.

Min temps tonight look similar to early this Sunday.

Diurnally driven, albeit isolated, showers and thunderstorms
are possible on Monday afternoon with the easterly/southeasterly
flow on the back side of the departing high bringing an
increase of llvl moisture/humidity back to central
Pennsylvania.

Heat index values are likely to approach 100F again on Monday
afternoon in the southeast.

Increasing clouds are likely Monday night as a result of the
combination of wind flow and positive moisture flux. As a
result, lows on Monday night will be a bit milder and in the
65-75F range (+10-15F above climo), making it feel quite muggy
once again. Fog possible in locations that get rain, but clouds
and southeast flow should limit radiational cooling and the
extent/thickness of the fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As we move into the middle and end of next week, guidance
depicts a pattern of unsettled weather with southwesterly flow
potentially bringing moisture associated with the remnants of
Beryl into the area.

The highest PoPs look to be centered around Wednesday, although
we will likely see continued chc/slight chc PoPs right into next
weekend (peaking with the daytime heating each aftn/eve). Not
surprisingly, given the tropical origins of the airmass, WPC
has painted a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall
for portions of Central PA in the Tues night to Wed night
timeframe.

Regardless of day-to-day PoPs, the extended period looks to
feature a continuation of the warm and humid weather we`ve been
seeing recently.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will diminish and skies will clear overnight, outside of
some mid-level clouds passing over the Lower Susq Valley during
the early overnight hours. Patchy fog should develop in the
pre-dawn hours, esp in the valleys of N/W PA, as shown in the
BFD TAF. Otherwise, VFR conds should prevail for much of central
PA overnight.

High pressure will provide widespread VFR conditions on Sunday,
with a light westerly wind ~5 kts expected.

Outlook...

Mon...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Tue-Thu...Scattered mainly afternoon showers/storms and
restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Evanego/NPB
AVIATION...Evanego