309
FXUS61 KCTP 071617
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1217 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* Dry and seasonably hot today with more comfortable humidity
* Increasing heat and humidity returns for early this week with
  max heat index values around 100 in parts of south central PA
  again Monday through Wednesday
* The best chance of rain/t-storms will be later Wednesday as
  deep, tropical moisture from Beryl is funneled north from the
  Gulf coast states

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure across the Ohio Valley into western PA making for
a dry and seasonable early July afternoon. Expect cumulus clouds
to continue with peak heating today, along with some cirrus
streaming in from the southwest.

Very Warm to hot temps in the low 80s to low 90s are expected
this afternoon with plenty of sunshine and more comfortable
dewpoint temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another mainly clear night with patchy to areas of valley fog
across northern PA as the center of high pressure slides
overhead.

Minimum temperatures tonight look similar to early this Sunday,
bottoming out around 60 in the northern tier to 70 near the
Mason-Dixon line.

Diurnally driven, albeit isolated, showers and thunderstorms
are possible on Monday afternoon with the easterly/southeasterly
flow on the back side of the departing high bringing an
increase of low level moisture/humidity back to central
Pennsylvania.

Heat index values are likely to approach 100F again on Monday
afternoon in south central to southeast PA.

Increasing clouds are likely Monday night as a result of the
combination of wind flow and positive moisture flux. As a
result, lows on Monday night will be a bit milder in the 65-75F
range (+10-15F above climo), making it feel quite muggy once
again as dewpoints remain in the same range. Fog will be possible
in locations that get rain, but clouds and southeast flow should
limit radiational cooling and the extent/thickness of the fog.

Lowered shower/storm chances for Tuesday given neutral to
positive height tendencies as the remnants of Beryl and a mid-
latitude trough slowly phase in the Mississippi Valley. Will
still see some terrain-induced storms pop along with additional
convection along outflow boundaries, but large scale forcing
looks negligible at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As we move into the middle and end of next week, guidance
depicts a pattern of unsettled weather with southwesterly flow
potentially bringing moisture associated with the remnants of
Beryl into the area.

The highest PoPs look to be centered around Wednesday, although
we will likely see continued chc/slight chc PoPs right into next
weekend (peaking with the daytime heating each aftn/eve). Not
surprisingly, given the tropical origins of the airmass, WPC
has painted a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall
for portions of Central PA in the Tues night to Wed night
timeframe.

Regardless of day-to-day PoPs, the extended period looks to
feature a continuation of the warm and humid weather we`ve been
seeing recently.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The morning patchy valley fog will quickly lift into the mid-
morning hours. High pressure will provide widespread VFR
conditions on today, with a light westerly wind ~5 kts expected.
A few high level clouds are possible across the region today,
but beyond that mostly sunny skies are going to be most
prevalent.

Mostly clear skies tonight will provide decent radiational
cooling for much of central PA. Patchy fog is once again
possible across the NW airfields. BFD will likely see
visibility restrictions during the early morning hours on
Monday.

Outlook...

Mon...Patchy AM fog for BFD, predominantly VFR elsewhere.

Tue-Thu...Scattered mainly afternoon showers/storms and
restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guseman/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Guseman/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Guseman/Lambert
LONG TERM...Evanego/NPB
AVIATION...Evanego/Bowen