Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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855 FXUS61 KCTP 040959 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 559 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will prevail through Saturday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could produce strong winds and heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening, especially in southern PA. Low pressure tracking north of Pennsylvania will drag a cold front east of the state on Saturday, ushering in drier and more comfortable conditions for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Starting out the day with mostly cloudy skies and uncomfortable humidity. Isolated showers are observed on radar this morning and will continue this morning, primarily in the vicinity of a decaying cold front over Northern PA. Convection will increase in coverage by afternoon, as a weak shortwave approaches from the Southern Great Lakes. Model RH profiles suggest mostly cloudy skies are likely. However, even modest diurnal heating of this high- pwat airmass should yield moderate capes of near 1000 J/kg south of the front. Deep layer shear profiles are not especially impressive today, but the combination of instability and shear yields decent updraft helicity values across the southern tier of the state, where isolated late day severe weather appears possible. The combination of instability and +2-3SD pwats could yield torrential downpours in some parts of Southern PA Thursday afternoon. The 00Z HREF indicates localized amounts to 3 inches are possible across the southern tier, but dry ground in this part of the state will limit the flash flood threat. Highs this afternoon will generally be in the 80s with a few spots potentially reaching 90 degrees in the southeast before convection arrives. Passage of the shortwave and nocturnal cooling should result in dwindling convection Thursday night. Slightly cooler air may work into the N Mtns, as the front sags into the central part of the state. Otherwise, expect a very warm and muggy night with min temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. Patchy fog appears likely, especially in locations that receive rainfall today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Latest high resolution guidance indicates a slug of heavy moderate showers could be present across northern PA on Friday morning, helping set the stage for more rain later in the day. The stalled front over Central PA is progged to return north as a warm front Friday PM ahead of low pressure lifting across the Great Lakes. Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of an upstream shortwave and associated surface low lifting across the Great Lakes should bring a round of showers/tsra in the Friday PM to Saturday AM timeframe. Model shear/instability profiles indicate strong to severe tsra can`t be ruled out Fri PM. The trailing cold front should clear most of the region by Sat morning, but could take until afternoon clear the southeast counties, where the threat of a tsra will linger. Current guidance suggests the mid level shortwave and bulk of the large scale forcing will pass north of PA, leading to unimpressive mean qpf in the ensemble plumes of 0.25 to 0.50 inches Fri PM to Saturday. However, locally heavier amounts will accompany stronger convection. The Weather Prediction Center has placed all of Pennsylvania in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for 8am Friday through 8am Saturday to account for the multiple rounds of showers and potential for rainfall amounts approaching 2 inches in a few spots. Flash flood guidance across most of the region remains quite high (3" or more in 3 hours), so most of this rainfall should be beneficial. It is also worth noting that heat index values will approach or briefly touch 100F on Friday afternoon in southeast PA. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s combined with high temperatures approaching 90 will result in a very hot and humid afternoon. With scattered convection in the forecast, there is not yet enough confidence to warrant a heat advisory but one may need to be considered if temps/dewpoints trend higher. Overnight lows into Saturday will also be quite mild, ranging from the upper 60s in northwest PA to the middle 70s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. After the cold front sweeps through on Saturday, cooler and less humid air will rush in by Sunday morning, with lows progged in the middle 50s NW to near 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... All medium range guidance supports fair weather and above average temperatures Sunday into early next week with upper level ridging indicated over the Northeast CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is progged to build over PA Sunday, then pass off of the east coast early next week. The return southerly flow should result in an uptick in heat/humidity early next week. 18Z GEFS plumes suggest isolated PM convection is possible Monday. However, the much better chance of showers/tsra will come Tuesday PM with the arrival of a cold front. There is some uncertainty with regards to how fast the cold front clears Eastern PA Wednesday, so retaining the chance showers that day. However, the latest ENS and GEFS currently support a return to drier, more seasonable weather for midweek. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A few showers have developed across the northern tier and will continue to push eastward over the next few hours. Showers and thunderstorms are struggling to develop and are not as widespread tonight as originally anticipated across the northern tier of the state. It`s possible some early morning showers could develop across the south as a local vorticity maxima moves across southern PA. Ceilings will gradually lower at BFD as throughout the overnight and early morning hours. A period of MVFR ceilings is likely after 06Z with IFR ceilings expected after 09Z. There is fairly high confidence that the low clouds extend down to JST with the HREF showing a 60-70% chance of MVFR ceilings there. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are anticipated. As the front progresses through the area during the afternoon today, thunderstorms will become more focused across the south. While all sites will likely see showers at some point during the TAF period, the exact timing of thunder will have to be adjusted in the forecast once we have a better idea of the exact placement of storms. Brief visibility restrictions and gusty winds will be possible in any of the stronger thunderstorms. A majority of the convective activity will be out of the region by 03Z tomorrow. Outlook... Fri...Sct TSRA w/ possible impacts; Mainly PM w/ highest coverage across the west. Sat...Sct to Nmrs TSRA areawide, highest chances SE in PM. Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise, no sig wx. Mon...SHRA possible SE late PM; otherwise, no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banghoff NEAR TERM...Banghoff SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Banghoff LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen