Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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160 FXUS61 KCTP 052233 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 633 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid summertime pattern with above to well above normal daytime and nighttime temperatures continues into next week. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in spots late today and tonight with the main threat for storms shifting to eastern PA on Saturday. Rain-free conditions and less humidity will follow for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Heat advisory for much of South-Central PA through early this evening was reduced slightly and extended overnight tonight and through 00Z Sun considering the lack of significant relief in the high dewpoint/light wind environment tonight with apparent Ts in the 90s/80s through the first half of tonight. Mid level ridge axis overhead combined with a strong cap (9.5-10.5C at 700 mb) and earlier widespread and relatively thick, layered cloud cover has minimized development of any deep convection thus far. However, conditions will become more favorable for SHRA/TSRA this evening (West) and during the early to middle of the overnight across the Central Zones and much of the Susq Valley as a subtle shortwave/few deg C of cooling aloft moves NE up the Ohio Valley. Showers could still linger until daybreak in the far NE. Sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s and the increasing cloud cover advecting in with the convection from the SW will lead to a very warm and muggy night with min temps similarly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Localized, briefly cooler temps in the mid 60s will occur where rainfall occur. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Focus for t-storms will shift to the eastern third of the CWA (Mainly Saturday PM) along and ahead of a weak cold front. A second area of SHRA/Low-topped TSRA are possible along the boundary of the Lake Erie Breeze that should reach NW Warren County and perhaps NW McKean Cty. HREF and its members suggests limited storm coverage likely owing to neutral height falls and weak llvl convergence. a couple of strong t-storms are still possible over eastern PA (generally east of a KIPt to KMDT line. High pressure builds in Saturday night and provides a slightly less humid and dry (rain-free) end to the first weekend of July. Sfc dewpoints will slowly creep back up to uncomfortable levels Sunday night into Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms appear possible on Monday with easterly/southeasterly flow bringing an increase of moisture to central Pennsylvania. Surging PWATs into Tuesday will promote higher chances of precipitation later in the evening and into Wednesday morning as a surface cold front approaches the region. Precipitation is expected to continue through late Wednesday when the cold front shifts east of the area, but have retained PoPs through the end of the Wednesday timeframe based on some remaining uncertainty with regards to timing. Some divergence in model solutions on Thursday and into the end of the week with the North American suite of models outlining surface high pressure taking hold across the region while the European suite of models outline a continuation of showers and storms throughout the period, so have capped chances to SChc outside of peak daytime heating hours where slightly higher probabilities emerge. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered showers, and possibly some thunder, will approach from the Ohio Valley later this evening and should push northeastward across the area overnight. Ensemble guidance suggests that we should see a period of MVFR cigs later tonight into Saturday morning over the western (BFD, JST) highlands and the central mountains (AOO, UNV). BFD could see it`s cig and/or vsby even dip to IFR for a few-hour period centered around daybreak. Improvement is expected areawide on Saturday, with all airfields returning to VFR conds by afternoon. Outlook... Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise, no sig wx expected with slightly lower humidity. Mon...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected. Tue-Wed...Scattered showers/storms and restrictions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ026>028-035. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ036-056-057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl LONG TERM...NPB AVIATION...Lambert/Evanego