531
FXUS61 KCTP 061940
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
340 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible acrs the far NW and
  SE parts of the CWA until dusk this evening; otherwise a
  dry/rain-free first weekend of July for most
* Turning hot & humid through early next week; max heat index
  around 100 in parts of south central PA today, Monday and
  Tuesday
* Best chance of rain/t-storms next Tuesday PM; wetter pattern
  may setup for later next week with eye on moisture from Beryl

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LLVL Negative theta_E advection and slightly anticyclonic flow
in the wake of a weak cold front will support mostly sunny skies
and NIL POPs for practically all areas for the rest of today and
tonight with a moderately gusty, refreshing westerly breeze into
the mid and upper teens (KTS).

A pocket of cooler mid-level air (5C at 700 mb) across NW PA
will lead to a channel of relatively high sfc based CAPE.
Combine this will some enhanced LLVL convergence along the SE
periphery of the Lake Erie Breeze, and there`s a chance for a
few brief showers there. Areas east of the Lower Susq Mainstem
could also see a few cu grow tall enough to make a brief shower
until around 22Z.

SFC dewpoints have fallen to the low and mid 60s in most places
which have minimized the Apparent Ts where highs have reached
the low-mid 90s across the Susq Valley. Dewpoints have fallen
into the comfortable mid and upper 50s with temps in the upper
70s across the Laurel Highlands from Somerset Cty...south into
MD and WVA.

A much more comfortable night is in store for all but the urban
areas in our SE zones where lows will likely stay at or just
above 70F.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Very Warm to hot temps in the low 80s to low 90s again on
Sunday with abundant sunshine, a mix of high-based cu and cirrus
and slightly reduced/lower humidity. Great weather for outdoor
summer activities, but stay hydrated with breaks in the shade or
indoors.

Min temps Sunday night look similar to tonight with more valley
fog expected across the northern tier.

Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Monday afternoon with easterly/southeasterly flow bringing an
increase of llvl moisture back to central Pennsylvania. The wind
flow and positive moisture flux will signal more clouds and higher
lows Monday night in the 65-75F range (+10-15F above climo).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As we move into the middle and end of next week, guidance
depicts a pattern of unsettled weather with southwesterly flow
brining moisture associated with Beryl to the area. There does
remain some uncertainty between model solutions with respect to
multiple disturbances throughout the week. Given a relatively
warm and humid airmass throughout the period, diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon and evening hours.

During this pattern, the best chance of showers/storms will be
attributed with surface low pressure moving north of the area
with an associated cold frontal passage Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. Surging PWATs ahead of the frontal passage
will provide ample moisture with enough forcing to produce
locally heavy rainfall across eastern PA, outlined with a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) in the D4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
from the Weather Prediction Center.

Despite rainfall chances, relatively warm temperatures are
expected throughout the extended period with Tuesday pushing the
highest heat index values this cycle. A brief cool down in the
wake of the cold front is resolved fairly well in model guidance
into Thursday; however, 500mb heights slightly increasing
towards the end of next week and potentially into the weekend,
outlining a slight warming trend towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
All airfields will be sct-bkn VFR cu/mdt cu through 22Z before
going mostly clear with just some patches of cirrus drifting
east across the state.

Winds will stay moderately gusty from the west for the next few
hours (in the mid/upper teens).

Winds will become light after sundown.

High pressure will be building in tonight and VFR conditions
are expected to persist through Sunday.

Outlook...

Sun...Patchy AM fog possible in the Northern Valleys;
otherwise, no sig wx expected with slightly lower humidity/good
vsby.

Mon...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Tue-Wed...Scattered mainly afternoon showers/storms and
restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Evanego/NPB
AVIATION...Lambert