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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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980 FXUS64 KCRP 101957 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 257 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect for the Coastal Bend - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts this weekend Not much change to the forecast as a hot and humid weather pattern continues across South Texas due to the influence of a persistent subtropical ridge. Elevated PWAT`s around 2.0 are expanding from a plume of moisture spreading south and west leading to a low 15-30% chance for some showers/thunderstorms this afternoon/evening mainly along the seabreeze. Temperatures today and tomorrow will range in the mid-90s along the coast to the low 100s inland. Heat indices are expected to range between 110+ degrees today prompting a Heat Advisory mainly along the Coastal Bend. Locations inland of this especially across the the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads may experience heat indices of at least 110 for a few hours but is expected to not last long enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for those areas. Regardless, there`s a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts across South Texas this weekend. Please take precautions to mitigate heat exposure. Tomorrow is less likely to need a Heat Advisory as slightly cooler dew points and surface temperatures are expected as the mid-level ridge flattens out. Overnight will remain warm with lows in the mid 70s to low 80s across the region under partly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Key Message: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts next week, with an extreme risk possible across the northern Brush Country by mid week. Not much change with the overall forecast next week. Summer time conditions will continue with hot and humid days and muggy nights and generally rain free for most areas. Mid/upper level high pressure will remain in control through next week. There is a low (20% or lower) chance of convection Monday and Tuesday, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads. Models continue to indicate an inverted trough moving west across S TX around the southern periphery of the high pressure on Monday and Tuesday. Sufficient moisture with pockets of 2 inch PWATs will be in place, mainly across the eastern portions of S TX. The inverted trough and limited moisture combined with a moderately unstable environment and the daily sea breeze will be conducive for isolated convective development, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads where the capping inversion will be weakest. Most locations will remain dry. Heat will continue to be the main concern through next week with highs ranging from low 90s along the immediate coastline to around 105 across the Rio Grande Plains each day. These high temperatures combined with a humid airmass will lead to heat indices ranging from 105 to 110 across S TX with some locations briefly reaching 111-114 degrees in the afternoons. This will lead to a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts with the northern Brush Country becoming extreme by mid week. Heat Advisories may be needed each day if heat indices of 110 or higher look to be widespread and last a couple of hours or more. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period except for ALI/VCT with MVFR VSBY`s tomorrow morning due to fog. Winds this afternoon will be out of the southeast with gusts up to 20 knots. Otherwise, light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow can be expected to persist through next week. Generally dry conditions will continue through next week with a low (10-20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms today and a low to medium (10-35%) chance across mainly the offshore waters on Monday and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 94 79 95 / 0 10 0 10 Victoria 75 95 76 96 / 10 10 0 20 Laredo 78 101 78 102 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 76 97 76 99 / 0 10 0 10 Rockport 81 94 81 94 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 78 103 78 105 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 96 78 97 / 0 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 83 91 82 91 / 0 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>247-342>344- 346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....TE/81 AVIATION...BF