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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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634 FXUS64 KCRP 052306 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 606 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 554 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Key Message: - HIGH risk of rip currents will continue through the weekend - Check long-term discussion below and the Local Hurricane Statement for details regarding Beryl Other than hazardous swimming conditions caused by very long swell periods over 10 seconds resulting in dangerous rip currents, weather is benign across South Texas through Saturday night. There is a low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, temperatures will be very warm tomorrow before cloud cover and moisture ramps up early next week. Please give your focus to the long term and the local hurricane statement issued. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 554 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Key Messages: - All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl. - Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week. - Hazardous marine conditions continue this weekend into next week. Sunday will start off partly to mostly cloudy as Beryl moves across the Gulf. Rain bands are expected to move onshore for south Texas by late morning as the winds begin to push the surge more into the shore. Beryl, itself is currently a Tropical Storm as it moves WNW around 15 mph over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Beryl will emerge into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico later this evening and track northwestward towards the Lower to Middle Texas Coast. This system is expected to restrengthen through the weekend, reaching hurricane status by Sunday. Beryl is relatively compact in size with tropical storm force winds currently extending up to 105 miles to the northeast from its center. Beryl has consistently nudged eastward with each update and is now forecast to make landfall sometime Monday along the Lower to Middle Texas Coast. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are now in effect along the Middle Texas Coast. In addition, there are several potentially hazardous impacts to the region. The threats include: - Winds: Sustained winds 60-80 mph with gusts up to 95 mph will be possible within the eyewall of Beryl along the coast and islands. - Coastal Flooding: Significant storm surge with peak inundation up to 5 feet possible across the Middle Texas Coast including the bays between Baffin Bay and Matagorda Bay. Greatest threat for storm surge is from Sunday night through Monday evening. - Flash Flooding: Elevated to moderate threat of flash flooding Sunday into early next week. Rainfall up to 3" over the Brush Country and 5-10" over the Coastal Plains with isolated amounts up to 15". - Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts will be possible, mainly on Sunday into Monday embedded within outer rain bands of Beryl. - Hazardous Seas: Wave heights 20-30 feet. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Skies will remain mostly clear this afternoon. Light to moderate southeast winds will be in place, with occasional wind gusts to around 15-20 knots. By evening mostly clear conditions continue, with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Brief periods of MVFR VSBYs are possible tomorrow morning over our eastern terminals due to patchy fog. Conditions should clear by late morning, giving way to mostly clear conditions with east- southeast winds of 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 554 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through Sunday morning, gradually increasing out of the northeast throughout the day as Hurricane Beryl approaches. While uncertainty is still high on timing and actual track, elevated seas up to 14 to 19 feet occasionally to 24 feet can be expected late this weekend into early next week with tropical storm or hurricane conditions possible as Beryl approaches the northeastern Mexico and South Texas coastlines. Rain chances will increase Sunday with medium to high chances hanging around through mid to late next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 95 79 92 / 0 10 10 30 Victoria 75 96 76 92 / 0 30 10 40 Laredo 75 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 73 99 75 95 / 0 10 0 30 Rockport 81 95 81 92 / 0 10 10 40 Cotulla 77 103 77 101 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 75 97 77 92 / 0 10 10 30 Navy Corpus 81 91 82 89 / 0 10 10 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Watch for TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447. Storm Surge Watch for TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF/94 LONG TERM....JSL/86 AVIATION...KRS