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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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291 FXUS64 KCRP 071720 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1014 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Tropical storm Beryl is beginning intensify as the thunderstorms are now filling in the northern part of the storm. So the forecast remains on track. The storm is getting into the region with the best conditions for intensification. The storm is moving more to the NW now as it begins to near the coast. Rapid intensification is will a distinct possibility. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Key Messages: - All of South Texas interests should continue to monitor the progress of Beryl - Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week. - Hurricane Warnings, Storm Surge Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along the Middle Texas Coast We are continuing to watch Beryl as it makes its way towards the middle Texas Coast. The forecast remains on track and the storm is expected to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico as it enters a more favorable environment with less shear. The storm will continue its northwest to north-northwestern track today into Monday. The NHC is expecting this storm to be a category 1 hurricane with the mention that rapid intensification is possible close to landfall. Therefore, we cannot rule out the potential for further strengthening into a low end category 2 hurricane. Nonetheless, expected threats will remain the same for our area. For more information, see the latest hurricane local statement for specific landfall based impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Rain chances will continue to linger through the remainder of the week. Beryl will continue to track to the north out the area and a ridge currently over the southwestern US will move to the south and retrograde back to our area. Simultaneously, a couple of shortwaves are expected to ride the western periphery of the ridge along with an influx of tropical moisture. This is expected to allow for some showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday and Thursday. Expect more diurnally driven convection through the remainder of the period. With the influx of moisture into the region the threat for heat stress related impacts returns. Heat indices return to 105-110 by Tuesday and will remain that way through next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions are currently prevailing across all terminals. However, that will quickly change for CRP/VCT as rainbands from Beryl spread inland through the afternoon. Strong winds, heavy rain, and reduced visibilities are likely with any band that move through. Winds will gradually increase at CRP/VCT through the day. While chances are diminishing at CRP, we could still see a few gusts to hurricane strength. VCT has greater chance for hurricane force conditions tonight. Conditions will improve through the day tomorrow as Beryl moves off to the north. Currently only have a mention of VCTS at ALI as the greatest impacts look to stay east of the terminal. COT/LRD - VFR conditions and winds less than 12 knots prevail through this TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Conditions will begin to deteriorate this morning from east to west in the area ahead of Tropical Storm Beryl. Winds will rapidly increase today into tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight into early Monday with wave heights up to 22-27 feet. Gradually improving conditions can be expected by mid- week. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday, with scattered thunderstorms lingering through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 79 95 78 / 50 50 60 30 Victoria 91 76 88 74 / 50 70 80 40 Laredo 101 80 102 80 / 10 10 20 10 Alice 96 78 98 76 / 30 30 50 20 Rockport 93 80 93 79 / 60 70 70 40 Cotulla 102 80 102 79 / 10 0 20 10 Kingsville 96 79 98 78 / 40 30 50 20 Navy Corpus 90 80 93 81 / 60 70 70 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ234-245>247-342>347-442-443-447. Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ232-233-242>244. Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for TXZ233- 234-245>247-346-347-447. Storm Surge Warning for TXZ245-343>347-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. Storm Surge Watch for TXZ442. GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM....NP AVIATION...TC/95