418
FXUS64 KCRP 040520
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts mid-week

- Medium chance for a Heat Advisory tomorrow

A mid to upper level ridge will continue to sit across the Southern
Plains and Southeast CONUS resulting in increased subsidence and
promoting easterly flow a loft. Therefore, chances for rain will be
low through tomorrow night, with only isolated showers possible from
time to time.

Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal
tomorrow which when mixed with high dewpoints will lead to heat
index values between 105-113 across the Coastal Plains, northern
Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend. Therefore, a moderate to
major risk of heat-related impacts are expected for the Independence
Day holiday. If spending time outdoors, remember to remain hydrated
and always look before you lock, cars can become ovens in as little
as 10-15 minutes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness
plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl

- There is a 5-10% chance of tropical storm force winds within the
next 5 days, with most likely time of arrival Sunday afternoon

- Increasing rain chances the first half of next week with at least
a 5% chance of flash flooding on Sunday

All eyes remain on Hurricane Beryl as it currently churns just south
of Jamaica as a Major Category 4 hurricane. Although increasing
shear has prohibited further strengthening, Beryl has held strong
and not weakened significantly since this morning. All guidance
indicates steady weakening to occur but Beryl is expected to
maintain hurricane status as it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula early
Friday morning. Once Beryl emerges into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico
there remains uncertainty on the track and strength. Majority of the
guidance keeps the track around or south of Corpus Christi, leading
to increasing rain chances Sunday through Wednesday with rainfall
totals up to around 6.0". The storm total QPF varies drastically
between model guidance and will likely change in future forecasts.

Regardless of the exact track, swells will increase significantly,
leading to a HIGH risk of rip currents and greater potential for
coastal flooding. Wave heights of 10-12 feet are forecast over the
offshore waters on Sunday.

Temperatures will remain very warm Friday and Saturday with highs
from the mid 90s to around 102 over the Rio Grande Plains. Mostly
cloudy skies and increasing rain chances will limit high
temperatures to the low to mid 90s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Persistent summer time conditions continues. VFR conditions expected
to prevail through much of the TAF period with very brief MVFR
conditions for ALI and VCT early Thursday morning due to light
patchy fog and lower cloud bases. Light S-SE winds overnight,
becoming gusty with gusts around 20-25 knots Thursday afternoon into
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through the
end of the work week, with more moderate flow developing Sunday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday through
the middle of next week. There is high uncertainty on the wind and
wave forecast as Hurricane Beryl moves into the Bay of Campeche, but
increased wave heights and long period swells are expected this
weekend and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  96  78  95 /   0   0   0  10
Victoria          76  96  75  96 /   0  10   0  20
Laredo            78 102  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             76  99  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Rockport          82  94  81  95 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           78 103  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        77  97  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  91  83  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...TE/81