291
FXUS64 KCRP 071720
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical storm Beryl is beginning intensify as the thunderstorms
are now filling in the northern part of the storm. So the forecast
remains on track. The storm is getting into the region with the
best conditions for intensification. The storm is moving more to
the NW now as it begins to near the coast. Rapid intensification
is will a distinct possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should continue to monitor the
progress of Beryl

- Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week.

- Hurricane Warnings, Storm Surge Warnings and Tropical Storm
  Warnings are in effect along the Middle Texas Coast

We are continuing to watch Beryl as it makes its way towards the
middle Texas Coast. The forecast remains on track and the storm is
expected to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico as it enters a more
favorable environment with less shear. The storm will continue its
northwest to north-northwestern track today into Monday. The NHC
is expecting this storm to be a category 1 hurricane with the
mention that rapid intensification is possible close to landfall.
Therefore, we cannot rule out the potential for further
strengthening into a low end category 2 hurricane. Nonetheless,
expected threats will remain the same for our area. For more
information, see the latest hurricane local statement for specific
landfall based impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Rain chances will continue to linger through the remainder of the
week. Beryl will continue to track to the north out the area and a
ridge currently over the southwestern US will move to the south and
retrograde back to our area. Simultaneously, a couple of shortwaves
are expected to ride the western periphery of the ridge along with
an influx of tropical moisture. This is expected to allow for some
showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday and Thursday.
Expect more diurnally driven convection through the remainder of the
period. With the influx of moisture into the region the threat for
heat stress related impacts returns. Heat indices return to 105-110
by Tuesday and will remain that way through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions are currently prevailing across all terminals.
However, that will quickly change for CRP/VCT as rainbands from
Beryl spread inland through the afternoon. Strong winds, heavy
rain, and reduced visibilities are likely with any band that move
through. Winds will gradually increase at CRP/VCT through the day.
While chances are diminishing at CRP, we could still see a few
gusts to hurricane strength. VCT has greater chance for hurricane
force conditions tonight. Conditions will improve through the day
tomorrow as Beryl moves off to the north. Currently only have a
mention of VCTS at ALI as the greatest impacts look to stay east
of the terminal.

COT/LRD - VFR conditions and winds less than 12 knots prevail
through this TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Conditions will begin to deteriorate this morning from east to
west in the area ahead of Tropical Storm Beryl. Winds will
rapidly increase today into tonight. Hurricane conditions are
expected tonight into early Monday with wave heights up to 22-27
feet. Gradually improving conditions can be expected by mid- week.
Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday through
Monday, with scattered thunderstorms lingering through the end of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  79  95  78 /  50  50  60  30
Victoria          91  76  88  74 /  50  70  80  40
Laredo           101  80 102  80 /  10  10  20  10
Alice             96  78  98  76 /  30  30  50  20
Rockport          93  80  93  79 /  60  70  70  40
Cotulla          102  80 102  79 /  10   0  20  10
Kingsville        96  79  98  78 /  40  30  50  20
Navy Corpus       90  80  93  81 /  60  70  70  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ234-245>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ232-233-242>244.

     Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for TXZ233-
     234-245>247-346-347-447.

     Storm Surge Warning for TXZ245-343>347-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

     Storm Surge Watch for TXZ442.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...TC/95