739
FXUS64 KCRP 110603
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
103 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Showers and Thunderstorms will continue through sunset, then again
  tomorrow

- Heat index values tomorrow from 100-105 degrees

An active radar can be seen this afternoon with most of the
activity now focused over the northern Coastal Plains into the
Victoria Crossroads and Deep South Texas. As the seabreeze
continues to push westward, additional showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop across the Brush Country and move into the
Rio Grande Plains this evening. As we lose daytime heating
heading into the sunset hours, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to taper off. This will lead to a mild and dry night
tonight with a low chance of patchy fog across the Coastal Plains
and Victoria Crossroads.

With PWATs remaining elevated through the short term ranging from
2.05-2.30" along with the passage of a shortwave tomorrow, there is
a medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorm to develop
once tomorrow. Similarly to today, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the Coastal Bend during the late morning
to early afternoon hours and move westward into the Coastal
Plains and Brush Country in the afternoon. Rain chances are once
again expected to taper off tomorrow evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

With the increased cloud cover and precipitation, near normal
temperatures are expected tomorrow with slightly milder overnight
temperatures. The cloud cover will also help keep the heat index at
bay tomorrow, however, heat indices are still expected to climb into
the 100-105 degree range during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

No major changes were needed for the long-term forecast. Early in
the period, we are set to experience sea breeze induced shower and
thunderstorm activity due to above-normal PWATS (2.00 - 2.25 inches)
and the presence of a mid-level trough over the region. By Sunday,
this trough is expected to propagate out, and a strong mid-level
ridge will build over Texas, allowing for PWAT values to be closer
to normal. This shift will lead to drier conditions early next week,
accompanied by a gradual warming trend. Temperatures through the
weekend and into next week will remain typical for this time of
year, with highs from the low 90s to low 100 and lows from the mid
70s to low 80s. Heat indices will generally be between 100 and 110
degrees for most of the period. By Monday and Tuesday, the Southern
Coastal Plains and portions of the Brush Country may approach heat
advisory criteria.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Expect mostly VFR conditions to continue through the remainder of
the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop sometime between tomorrow morning and
afternoon with the arrival of the sea breeze. Similar to
yesterday, storms will travel across all sites from east to west
and tapering off in the evening. Some of these storms could
potentially cause some brief periods of MVFR though confidence on
exact timing is low so it was opted to not include it during this
cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Weak onshore flow is expected tonight through tomorrow night. Rain
chances will remain on the low end tonight increasing to medium
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Weak to moderate onshore flow will
develop Friday and persist into early next week. Daily isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
weekend, with mainly dry conditions expected early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  77  90  79 /  60  30  50  20
Victoria          91  75  90  75 /  60  20  70  20
Laredo            92  76  93  78 /  60  20  40  20
Alice             92  74  93  75 /  70  20  50  10
Rockport          92  78  92  81 /  50  40  50  30
Cotulla           95  76  95  78 /  40  20  40  20
Kingsville        91  76  92  77 /  70  30  50  20
Navy Corpus       89  81  90  82 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...NP/92