438
FXUS61 KCLE 062257
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
657 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region tonight and persist
through Monday. Low pressure will extend a weak cold front east
across the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
6:50 PM Update...
Added some patchy fog for tonight across the outer edges of our
forecast area, otherwise no changes were made to the forecast.

Previous Discussion...
Quiet and seasonable weather is expected for the near term
period as high pressure builds across the area tonight and
persists through Sunday night. For the remainder of today, there
is still the potential for an isolated shower or two across NW
PA, though confidence remains low given limited low and mid-
level moisture.

For Sunday, expecting more diurnal cu to develop in the late
morning/afternoon, though perhaps slightly less coverage than
today as temperatures rise into the low to mid-80s. A lake
breeze is expected to develop as the MSLP gradient remains
weak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SW`erly flow aloft is expected to reside over our CWA on Monday as a
ridge at the surface and aloft exits E`ward. A weak synoptic MSLP
gradient and sufficient daytime heating of land surrounding ~73F
Lake Erie are expected to allow a lake breeze to occur within
several miles of the lake during the late morning through early
evening hours. The stabilizing lake breeze and stabilizing
subsidence associated with the ridge will allow fair weather to
impact our entire CWA. Late afternoon highs are forecast to reach
the lower 80`s to lower 90`s, with the coolest readings expected
over/near Lake Erie.

Cyclonic SW`erly to W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect our CWA on Monday night through Tuesday night.
At the surface, troughing becomes established across our area. A
warm front is expected to sweep NE`ward through our region Monday
night and usher-in a warmer/slightly more-humid air mass originating
over the Gulf of Mexico and supportive of periods of heavy rainfall
as PWAT values rise to unusually-high values per forecast model data
and the climatological data from the four upper-air stations closest
to our CWA. Moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the
warm front should release sufficient elevated CAPE to generate
isolated showers/thunderstorms after midnight, especially over/near
NW OH and far-western Lake Erie. Despite moderate deep layer bulk
shear, the elevated nature of storms and lack of steep mid-level
lapse rates are expected to prevent storms from becoming severe.
Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 60`s to lower 70`s around
daybreak Tuesday. Peeks of sunshine and daytime heating on Tuesday
are forecast to allow late afternoon highs to reach the upper 70`s
to upper 80`s. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected as low-level convergence along shortwave disturbance-
related surface trough axes interact with weak to moderate
warm/moist sector boundary layer CAPE amidst moderate to strong deep
layer bulk shear. A continued lack of steep mid-level lapse rates
should prevent severe hail, but strong to severe thunderstorms with
strong to damaging convective gusts are possible during the
afternoon through early evening as diurnal convective mixing of the
boundary layer yields steep low-level lapse rates and contributes to
the formation of sizable DCAPE. A weak cold front is still poised to
sweep SE`ward through our region Tuesday night and usher-in a
slightly cooler/less-humid air mass associated with a surface ridge
that will build from the northern Great Lakes and vicinity. However,
surface dew points are forecast to remain in the 60`s. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms should occur along the cold front
and pre-front surface trough axes attendant to shortwave
disturbances as these lifting mechanisms encounter weak to perhaps
moderate boundary layer CAPE amidst continued moderate to strong
deep layer bulk shear in the warm/moist sector. However, slight
boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling should allow any
lingering potential for damaging convective gusts to end by
midnight. Overnight lows should reach mainly the 60`s around
daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast confidence is low during this period due, in part to
uncertainty regarding the evolution of what will become the remnant
low of Tropical Cyclone Beryl. Cyclonic SW`erly to W`erly flow aloft
and embedded shortwave disturbances should continue to impact our
CWA as a longwave trough remains entrenched over/near the
northern/central Great Plains and the core of mid/upper-level
ridging resides well-downstream of our region, over/near the
Atlantic Ocean offshore the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states. At
the surface, the aforementioned front should drift SE`ward toward
the OH River on Wednesday and then waver near the river on Thursday
through Saturday as Beryl`s remnant low moves along the front from
near the Mid MS Valley toward the northeastern U.S. and other
surface lows attendant to the aforementioned shortwave disturbances
follow suit. Simultaneously, the aforementioned surface high should
continue to build slowly from the northern Great Lakes and vicinity.
Isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the front and preceding
shortwave trough axes, and low-level convergence/attendant ascent
associated with the cyclonic circulations of the frontal lows should
interact with sufficient moisture and instability, including
elevated CAPE, to trigger periods of showers/thunderstorms,
especially each afternoon through early evening, when MUCAPE will be
maximized via peeks of sunshine and daytime heating. Daily afternoon
highs are expected to reach mainly the lower to mid 80`s on
Wednesday through Saturday. Overnight lows should reach the 60`s to
lower 70`s Wednesday night through Friday night, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR expected to continue through the TAF period as high pressure
builds in tonight. Afternoon cumulus clouds should dissipate
over the next couple hours. Patchy fog could develop for some
inland locations late tonight into early Sunday morning but
confidence wasn`t high enough to add to any TAF sites. Scattered
afternoon cumulus clouds of 3-5kft are expected again Sunday.

Winds will decrease to less than 5 knots overnight, remaining
light into Sunday. A lake breeze is expected to develop by late
Sunday morning/early afternoon at CLE/ERI, shifting winds
towards the northwest, 5 to 8 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to remain around 5 to 15 knots the rest of
today through this Thursday. As a result, waves are expected to
remain 3 feet or less. SW`erly to W`erly winds accompanying a
lingering trough over Lake Erie become variable tonight through
Monday as a ridge builds from the west. These variable winds
will trend onshore during the late morning through early evening
hours of Sunday and Monday, when lake breeze development is
expected. E`erly to SE`erly winds develop Monday evening and
then veer to S`erly to SW`erly overnight due to the NE`ward
passage of a warm front. S`erly to SW`erly winds persist over
Lake Erie on Tuesday and then veer toward NW`erly Tuesday night,
when a weak cold front is expected to sweep SE`ward across the
lake and be followed by a ridge building from the northern
Great Lakes and vicinity. Variable winds are expected on
Wednesday, when another lake breeze should develop during the
late morning through early evening. Winds should then become
E`erly to NE`erly over Lake Erie Wednesday night through
Thursday as the aforementioned front settles near the OH River,
Tropical Cyclone Beryl`s remnant low weakens/moves along the
front from the Mid MS Valley toward the Mid OH Valley, and
interacts with the aforementioned ridge that should continue to
build from the northern Great Lakes and vicinity.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Jaszka