490
FXUS61 KCLE 020527
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
127 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through late Tuesday. A cold front tracks
through the region late Wednesday into Wednesday night, then
tracking back through as a warm front Thursday night. Another cold
front then follows for late Friday into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
1:27 AM EDT Update...
Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. A ridge aloft continues to build from the Upper
Midwest and vicinity as the surface portion of this ridge
remains centered in vicinity of the eastern Great Lakes and
continues to affect our CWA. Only change was a slight decrease
to forecast low temperatures for this morning. Expect
weak/variable surface winds, low humidity at/near the surface,
and scattered cirrus at most to promote efficient radiational
cooling through daybreak this morning. As a result, expect lows
to range from the upper 40`s in the interior valleys of NW PA to
the upper 50`s along the shore of ~72F Lake Erie. The exception
will be the Lake Erie Islands and Marblehead Peninsula, where
weak E`erly to SE`erly surface winds will result in onshore flow
from ~72F Lake Erie and lows in the 60`s. Please see discussion
below for further details.

Previous Discussion...
This will be the quiet part of the forecast for this issuance
with Canadian surface high pressure in control over the Great
Lakes, then drifting towards upstate New York/New England by
Tuesday night. This will allow for return flow into the region
as it moves eastward, and will get a significant temperature
jump for the max values Tuesday as thicknesses increase and
850mb temperatures increase as well. The forecast is dry, but
will be awaiting a cold front that will be moving into the Great
Lakes with POPs near the doorstep of the CWA in NW OH by the
end of the Tuesday night time frame. Expect some increases in
the cloud coverage along with wind increases as the pressure
gradient becomes more of a factor through that Tuesday night
period. Tuesday night low temperatures also considerably milder
than tonight, which will find widespread 50s with some outlying
40s in northern OH and a bit more common in NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The next round of rainfall and stormy weather will arrive
late Wednesday into Wednesday night associated with a cold
front. Ahead of that front will be a very warm and moist
airmass across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on
Wednesday. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and lower
90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. It will feel very muggy
with the heat index in the mid to upper 90s Wednesday afternoon.

The thermodynamics later on Wednesday will support a marginal
to slight potential for strong to severe storms to develop along
and ahead of the advancing cold front. Moderate to strong
destabilization is expected to develop in the warm sector ahead
of the front. There will be at least some weak height falls and
moderately strong mid level westerlies to support adequate wind
shear and organization of convection. Multicell bands and
clusters of storms will be the possible storm mode with damaging
wind gusts being the main severe weather hazard.

The cold front will slow down and eventually stall south of the
area either in central or southern Ohio late Wednesday night
into Thursday as the steering flow will be parallel with the
west to east surface front. Depending on exactly where and how
far south this front will stall out will also affect what our
rain chances will be here locally on Thursday. We will maintain
chance for scattered showers and storms across northern Ohio and
likely POPs closer to central Ohio or south of Highway 30
Thursday afternoon and evening. There is the potential for a
couple rounds of convection and rainfall that may track across
the region if this stalled front is closer to our area on
Thursday and Thursday night. And that scenario or forecast
trends that way, we may also see our heavy rainfall and flooding
threat increase late this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stronger shortwave trough will move across the Midwest into
the Great Lakes region Friday. This upper level feature will
help the stalled front across Ohio lift back as a warm front
Friday morning and another round of showers and storms. We will
finally kick this system through our region Friday afternoon and
night with another cold front advancing from west to east
Friday evening. We will have to keep on eye on trends to see how
much the atmosphere can destabilize after the morning round of
rainfall associated with the warm front. There may also be some
potential for severe weather late Friday. A weak area of high
pressure will try to build in from the Midwest on Saturday with
a drying trend in our weather. We may have some slight POPs for
isolated showers early on Saturday. Another fast moving system
may push across the Great Lakes region late in the weekend with
another Chaunce for rainfall. Temperatures will be near or just
slightly warmer than average for the end of the week through
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR expected through 06Z/Wed. Aloft, a ridge continues to build
from the Upper Midwest and vicinity while a disturbance farther
upstream advances from the Northern Rockies toward the Upper MS
Valley. Few to scattered mid/upper-level clouds associated with
the disturbance will traverse the ridge and our region. At the
surface, the ridge continues to affect our region through the
TAF period as the core of the surface ridge moves from the
Eastern Great Lakes region toward Atlantic waters near Long
Island and NJ.

Our regional surface winds are expected to be light and variable
through 12Z/Tues. Thereafter, primarily SE`erly to SSE`erly
surface winds around 10 knots are expected through 06Z/Wed.
However, a Lake Erie lake breeze is expected to develop this
afternoon through early evening and penetrate up to two miles or
so inland. This lake breeze is expected to impact KERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic/scattered
showers/thunderstorms this Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will settle inn over the region with marine
weather conditions improving this evening. High pressure will
move east for Tuesday and southeast return flow will start to
overtake Lake Erie. A warm front will approach the lake during
the daytime hours and likely hang around the southern shore by
afternoon, allowing for more easterly flow over the water and
southeast flow on land for a brief period. The front will clear
the lake on Tuesday night and southerly flow will be favored,
increasing on Wednesday as a cold front approaches. There could
be a need for a brief Small Craft Advisory on Wednesday with the
stronger offshore flow. The cold front will cross the lake by
Wednesday night and light westerly flow will become favored
across the basin. The front will stall over the Ohio Valley for
Thursday and light generally offshore flow will be favored. This
front will get lifted back north toward and across the lake on
Friday and southerly flow will be enhanced a bit. There will be
shower and storm chances for Wednesday through Saturday with an
unsettled weather pattern in place. Some storms may need a short
fused marine warning headline, especially on Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/26
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Griffin