


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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926 FXUS61 KCLE 011732 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 132 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A trough will move through the area today. High pressure will build into the region tonight and Wednesday behind the trough. Another trough will move through the area on Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There will be a downtrend in convection over the next several hours, as the warm sector ahead of the incoming trough is fairly worked over and rain is not able to sustain in the area. Next up, an area of convection over Central Indiana will continue east ahead of the trough and try to advect into the forecast area. There`s some uncertainty on how far north any rain or thunder will get and just have a sliver of likely PoPs for the southern forecast area. Behind this round of convection there should be a brief period without rain in the area. However, the main trough system will move through the area this afternoon and could spark some isolated to scattered showers and storms. Believe coverage will be on the lower side, if this round from Indiana can sustain in the area and work over the atmosphere one more time. But, if the area remains dry during the late morning hours, then coverage could be a bit higher. The main trough axis should be over the area this evening and continue east tonight into Wednesday, allowing for dry conditions as high pressure builds into the region. Residual low level moisture across the region will allow for some patchy fog in spots for tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures through the period will be generally seasonable. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast period continues to be largely uneventful heading into the Independence Day holiday. High pressure will be over the region to start the period on Wednesday night. However, an upper trough over northern Ontario will extend itself southeast for Thursday and allow for a weak surface trough to move through the region. There could be some showers and maybe a storm or two with this feature on Thursday, but remain relatively unimpressed with the setup, as the better synoptic support for convection should be north of the border and the mean west to northwest flow should clamp most of the moisture south. Temperatures will also just be near normal and there may not be the extreme instability to get widespread, diurnally-driven convection. The trough will exit for the Fourth of July holiday and high pressure will build in, allowing for dry conditions. This surface high will push east through the day and allow for some warmer and more moist return flow into the region and some spots could hit 90 degrees. If temperatures push too far above 90 degrees, the atmosphere could hit some convective temperatures for some isolated showers/storms, but confidence in that is very low. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The long term forecast will be a return to hot with storm chances for the weekend into early next week. The main culprit will be exiting high pressure and an upper ridge axis moving through the area on Saturday. This will allow for full on return flow into the region with temperatures above 90 degrees will be expected for many, but dew points will also go back to above 70 degrees at times. There may be some conditional heat risk concerns with this pattern change, as heat index values well into the 90s will be in play, but it`s too early to tell how much convection could play an impact into that. Compared to yesterday, not as impressed with the convective setup for Saturday. The overall synoptic pattern seems a touch slower, but any main synoptic forcing appears to favor Sunday or Monday. Therefore, any rain or storm chances on Saturday would be diurnally- driven, which will probably happen if widespread lower 90s can be achieved, but coverage will be fairly scattered. For Sunday, this will probably be the best day for rain and storm chances as a shortwave trough will enter the Great Lakes region and interact with the hot and moist air mass. At the surface, a trough/weak cold front will move through the area and allow for more development of shower and thunderstorm activity and will have the highest PoPs for the period with this feature. There could be the potential for some organized storms with synoptic support and will need to monitor Sunday for a future severe threat. For Monday, the area will be on the back side of the system but there could be some lingering convective activity as the air mass will remain conducive with temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with primarily VFR to persist through the TAF period. A brief period of IFR vsbys in a line of showers and thunderstorms is possible at MFD/CAK/YNG later this afternoon, associated with a weak cold front. Lower confidence in coverage at CLE precludes tempo mention, though will include a brief window of vcts. Otherwise, only other concern will be pockets of fog developing across the southeast portion of the area overnight into Wednesday morning, primarily impacting CAK/YNG. Winds are generally out of the south to southwest ahead of the cold front, 5 to 10 knots, shifting towards the west to northwest behind the front, around 10 knots. Winds will become light overnight, favoring a slight west to northwest direction. A lake breeze may impact CLE/ERI Wednesday afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected through Saturday. Non-VFR may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, particularly across the western half of the area. && .MARINE... High pressure will build across Lake Erie today allowing for winds of 5-10 knots to persist from the west-northwest. Tonight, winds will gain a more northerly component as the ridge continues to push over the area. On Wednesday, winds again gain a southwesterly component and persist at 5-10 knots before a weak cold front sags south across the region and allows winds to shift back to a more northerly direction. High pressure returns on Friday and is expected to persist into at least the start of the weekend. Although wind direction may chance multiple times, given overall weak gradient over the area, light winds will allow wave heights to remain 2 feet or less. No marine headlines are anticipated. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...04