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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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296 FXUS61 KCLE 021959 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 359 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge builds to the east as low pressure centered over the Midwest lifts a warm front across the region tonight. This low will then drag a cold front east across the region during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. The cold front will stall south of the area for Thursday leaving unsettled weather across the region through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather will continue through tonight as an upper ridge and surface high pressure build toward the East Coast. By tonight, a warm front will begin to lift northeastward through Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. This front will usher in warm and moist air with warm overnight lows settling in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Surface low pressure over the Great Lakes will drag a cold front across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. The front will be entering a warm and moist environment characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and MUCAPE values ranging between 1500-2000 J/kg. The chance for showers with scattered thunderstorms will increase along and ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, generally between 2 and 10 PM. For now, our entire forecast area remains in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather with a primary hazard of damaging wind gusts. There remains some uncertainty with how much cloud cover will move overhead Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Additional cloud cover would inhibit daytime heating which would lead to lower afternoon highs and less instability, therefore decreasing our severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday night, the front will cross through the region before stalling south of the local area. Multiple upper level shortwaves will move along the frontal boundary and keep shower and thunderstorm chances across the Ohio Valley into the short term period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A stationary front sags to the south on Thursday and Thursday night. Model guidance has been trending southward, so right now expected scattered showers and thunderstorms along and south of US-30 during the day Thursday. 20-40% PoPs areawide Thursday night as this front lifts northward as a warm front. By Friday, an upper-level trough/closed low approaches from the west, with the upper low centered over Wisconsin by Friday afternoon. At the surface, low pressure becomes collocated with the upper-low, with the warm front extending from this low lifting north across the region late Thursday night into early Friday morning, placing the entire area in the warm sector. Most models have a moist environment with dew points rising into the low 70s within the warm sector on Friday, contributing to MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Modest mid-level southwesterlies will result in deep layer shear of around 35-45 knots. There is a good chance for organized convection with at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low chance PoPs linger on Saturday as wrap-around moisture from the upper low moves in but high pressure builds in by Saturday night and Sunday before departing to the east Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday will feel like summer as it gets hot and humid with daily low chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR conditions remain across all terminals through the period as a ridge of high pressure gradually builds eastward. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front late Wednesday afternoon and evening. The bulk of the showers and storms will occur outside the current TAF period but have begun to mention -SHRA at western terminals (~16Z) and VCTS in the KCLE 30 hour TAF. Southeasterly winds 8-10 knots will turn southwesterly overnight tonight before increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots by late Wednesday morning. There remains to be a lake breeze impacting KERI this afternoon with the expectation that winds will return generally southerly by 00Z/Wed. Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic/scattered showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Saturday. && .MARINE... Easterly flow this evening becomes southerly as a warm front lifts north across the region. Southerly flow of around 15 knots is expected tonight into Wednesday morning, with flow approaching 20 knots in the eastern basin. Considered a small craft advisory for the eastern nearshore zones but given low confidence and low impact of the timing, decided against issuing. Will give more consideration to it based on additional observations and model guidance later this evening. Beyond tomorrow, relatively quiet conditions are expected, and should be a relatively calm Lake Erie for 4th of July. Next chance for stronger winds won`t be until Friday night into Saturday when a cold frontal passage brings the chance for 20+ knot southwest to west winds. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Iverson SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Iverson MARINE...Saunders