057
FXUS62 KCHS 050509
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
109 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot and humid air mass will build over the region late week
into the weekend. A weak cold front could approach the region
later this weekend and stall over the area through the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Rest of Tonight: Quiet/dry conditions will prevail through the night
while subtle h5 shortwave energy nudges south across the local area
along the eastern edge of a ridge. Few clouds associated with this
feature continue to erode, encountering an abundance of dry air in
the mid-lvls depicted on nearby soundings. Winds should remain light
and/or calm for the remainder of the night, leading to radiational
cooling during late hours. As a result, temps should dip into the
mid 70s inland, but remain in the upper 70s/near 80 near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid-level ridge across the Southeast U.S. will remain in place
through the period. The pattern features little distinct surface
features; however, generally speaking there is high pressure
offshore and trough of low pressure inland. Friday will still feel
the influence of the ridge aloft, with a mid-level temperature
inversion keeping convection limited especially along the coast.
Therefore, the forecast for Friday reflects chance POPs (20-35%) far
inland where some deeper moisture begins to creep in. The weekend
should be a bit more convectively active. A weak front will approach
the region on Saturday but will stay west of the local area.
However, as mid-level moisture advection ramps up, we anticipate
coverage to follow suite. There could be convection initiation along
the sea breeze, but it appears development will trigger via llvl
convergence near the inland surface trough/stationary front and then
move into the local area from the west. A similar set-up is expected
Sunday with the surface front providing focus for convection.

High temps will reach the mid to upper 90s Friday away from the
coast. Saturday temps will peak in the low to mid 90s, but it will
feel even hotter with heat indices approaching the local Heat
Advisory criteria of 108 degrees in spots. Some locations could
require an Excessive Heat Advisory Saturday. Sunday will be a few
degrees cooler, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures will
remain mild, in the mid to upper 70s, both Friday and Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging aloft will prevail through the middle of next week with a
broad trough to the northwest and a weakening upper low nearing the
Southeast US coast. A stationary front looks to remain in the
vicinity of the forecast area, setting up across the Midlands. In
addition to the sea breeze, the front will provide the focus for
convection With plenty of deep moisture in place. At least scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, with coverage
peaking in the afternoon and evenings. Temperatures are forecast to
stay slightly above normal, in the low to mid 90s through next week,
with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging off the coast continues to dominate tonight and tomorrow,
with mainly dry conditions and an overall weak gradient with
VFR conditions prevailing.

As the case in recent years, following this evening`s pyrotechnic
displays, smoke or haze may result in brief periods of visibility
restrictions at the terminals after dark. Forecast soundings
indicate that a BL inversion may form as early as 2-3Z with
light and variable winds. Future TAF issuances may include some
degree of visibility restrictions associated with firework
smoke.

Otherwise, mainly only scattered passing cirrus overnight.
Though radiational cooling will be efficient, any light/shallow
fog is expected to remain inland mainly across SE GA, not
impacting the TAF terminals.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evenings,
this weekend through the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Conditions should remain mostly quiet while high pressure
over the western Atlantic extends across local waters. However, a
bit of nocturnal surging could lead to southerly winds upwards to
around 15 kt at times across all waters, before gradually weakening
near daybreak. Seas will generally range between 2-3 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: Southerly flow will persist through early
next week. Marine conditions will stay solidly below small craft
advisory criteria with speeds 15 knots or less and seas averaging 2-
3 feet.

Rip Currents: A swell of 2 feet every 10 seconds and proximity to
the new moon will maintain an enhanced risk of rip currents on
Friday. A Moderate risk is forecast at all area beaches. An enhanced
risk of rip currents could continue through the weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...BRM/CEB
MARINE...BRM/DPB