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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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348 FXUS62 KCHS 020015 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 815 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will impact the area tonight into early Tuesday before dissipating offshore. A hot and humid air mass will build over the region during the latter half of the week. By Monday, a weak cold front may reach coastal Georgia and South Carolina. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Another forecast update to cancel the rest of the Flood Watch. Ongoing convection is mainly in just scattered clusters where heavy rainfall will be localized and any resulting flooding issues should be minor. Also, these storms are progressive enough to prevent enough duration to produce flash flooding. Thunderstorm activity continues to concentrate along the southward moving front/outflow boundary. This aligns convection from the South Carolina coastal waters westward across Beaufort and Jasper counties, back into interior southeast Georgia. Activity will likely continue to develop along the front/outflow until it gets to the Altamaha River and further south. Precipitable water values are still quite high, around 2.1-2.4 inches, which will support a locally heavy rainfall threat. We have adjusted rain chances to depict the highest chances across the coastal waters and then along the Savannah River and points westward. There does not appear to be any real severe weather threat, though the outflow boundary and front could produce wind gusts into the 25-30 mph range as it passes. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: The surface pattern is expected to feature a stalled boundary across SE GA with drier high pressure ridging across the SC Lowcountry. The environment along and south of the front should continue to feature deep instability and PW. The forecast will feature scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along and south of the front, keeping portions of inland SC dry. Using a blend of MOS, high temperatures are forecast to range in the mid to upper 80s. Wednesday: Short term guidance indicates that a 595 dm ridge will build over the Deep South and Southeast CONUS. At the sfc, the center of high pressure will remain off the NE and middle Atlantic states, resulting in ENE flow across the forecast area. This pattern will support a sea breeze to develop, serving as a focus for deep convection. Given the wide field of instability, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the sea breeze. High temperatures are forecast to range around 90 degrees. A few counties across extreme SE GA may see heat index values peak between 100-105 degrees. Independence Day: Mid-level ridge will build over the forecast area on Thursday. Given high pressure over the western Atlantic, a sea breeze may develop during the afternoon. However, GFS forecast soundings indicate drier conditions compared to the first half of the week. Forecast soundings indicate PW around 1.5 inches with an inversion centered at H65. This profile indicates limited instability. The forecast will indicated isolated showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are forecast to range between 90-95 degrees over dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Heat index values are forecast to peak between 100-105 degrees. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Friday through Sunday, the feature of concern will remain the 595 dm ridge over the region. The forecast area under the strong ridge will feature high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s each day. In addition, dewpoints will climb in the mid to upper 70s. The max heat index will range between 105 to 113 each afternoon. This may result in either a Heat Advisory or a Excessive Heat Warning late this week into early next week. The forecast will indicate diurnal isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. On Monday, a weak front will approach from the west as the mid- level ridge shifts over the western Atlantic. Conditions across the forecast area will remain hot. However, storm coverage should increase, bringing some relief from the heat. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the 00z TAF period, thunderstorm activity has ended near KCHS and KJZI, while the next round of storms around KSAV should occur over the next couple of hours. First at KSAV, we advertise IFR visibilities in TSRA with a TEMPO group from 01-03z. Thereafter, model guidance suggests MVFR ceilings should spread across the terminals for much of the overnight period. While we can`t rule out a period of IFR ceilings, confidence is highest in MVFR conditions. Late tonight, showers and thunderstorms could develop along a stalled boundary just off the Beaufort County coast. This activity could try to push inland and approach KSAV Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms should stay south of KCHS and KJZI on Tuesday, while chances of direct impacts will be higher at KSAV. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evenings through the period. && .MARINE... Tonight: A cold front will work slowly south into the waters tonight. Winds will shift to the northeast behind the front with speeds reaching 15-20 kt in the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore leg late. Otherwise, winds speeds will remain 15 kt or less. Widespread showers/tstms could reduce vsbys to 1 NM or less at times. A few strong convective wind gusts in excess of 35 kt could also occur. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Tuesday through Saturday: Gusty ENE winds should develop across the nearshore SC waters on Tuesday. The region will remain between building high pressure and the front stalled to the south. Gusts are forecast to remain around 20 kts with 3-4 ft seas. Conditions are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the rest of the week. A weak pressure gradient should support winds 15 knots or less and seas averaging 2-3 ft. && .CLIMATE... Daily Rainfall Records for July 1: KCHS: 2.66 set in 1948 KCXM: 1.64 set in 1966 (*As of 8pm, 1.93 has fallen today*) KSAV: 2.76 set in 1871 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...NED LONG TERM...NED AVIATION...BSH MARINE...