527
FXUS62 KCHS 032025
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
425 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will linger near the area tonight. Through the
rest of the week, a hot and humid air mass will build over the
region. A weak cold front could approach the region by early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Late this afternoon, KCLX detected a cluster of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across portions of Long and Tattnall Counties. This
activity should continue to drift south, crossing the Altamaha River
between 5 to 6 PM. Isolated coverage may linger across SE GA into
the early evening. However, conditions should rapidly stabilize
after sunset, resulting in the lingering convection to dissipate.

Overnight, forecast soundings indicate that moisture will remain
trapped below a llvl inversion. Below the inversion, patches of
stratus may develop and gradually build down to the sfc. This
process appears most likely over areas that received rainfall this
afternoon across SE GA. The forecast will mention patchy fog over
areas of wet soil. Using a blend of MOS, min temperatures are
forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the mid 70s across the
coastal counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mid level ridge across the southern CONUS will remain in place
through the period. The surface pattern feature high pressure
offshore and trough of low pressure inland. A weak front will
approach the region on Saturday but will stay west of the local
area. The weather should be fairly quiet for Independence Day with
influence of the ridge helping to limit convection. We keep the
forecast area mostly dry, with the exception of an isolated shower
or thunderstorm across our extreme southeastern Georgia counties as
the deeper moisture resides just to our south. Temperatures will
peak in the upper 80s along the beaches and Downtown Charleston and
the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows will reach down into
the upper 70s along the beaches/Downtown Charleston and the low to
mid 70s inland.

Friday and Saturday should be a bit more convectively active,
especially inland. There could be development with the sea breeze,
but it appears most will trigger via llvl convergence near the
inland trough and then move into the local area from the west. The
forecast reflects POPs around 30-45% far inland on Friday, and
increasing to 50-65% Saturday as mid-level moisture advection ramps
up. High temps on Friday will reach the mid to upper 90s Friday and
around the middle 90s Saturday. It will feel even hotter with heat
indices approaching the local Heat Advisory criteria of 108 degrees
in spots. Friday looks marginal, with Saturday having the better
chance for excessive heat headlines. Low temperatures will remain in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging aloft will prevail through the middle of next week with a
broad trough to the northwest and a weakening closed low nearing the
Southeast US coast. The surface pattern maintains high pressure
offshore and troughing inland. Guidance indicates PWats exceeding 2
inches through much of the period. We are anticipating a slightly
more active period with at least scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible each day. The greatest coverage is expected in the
afternoon and evenings. Max temperatures are forecast to stay
slightly above normal, in the low to mid 90s through next week, with
lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prior to the 18z TAFs, KCLX detected isolated and scattered
showers with one, or two thunderstorms in the vicinity of KSAV.
With the passage of the seabreeze later this afternoon, a
thunderstorm could pass over KSAV between 18-20z. The potential
for this thunderstorm has been highlighted in the KSAV TAF with
TEMPO. For KCHS and KJZI, the potential for an afternoon shower
is too low to mention in the TAFs. KCHS and KJZI is expected VFR
with a steady SE wind around 10 kts till sunset. The concern
for late tonight is the potential for fog and possible low
ceiling. Forecast soundings indicate some potential for IFR
stratus between 09z and daybreak, however MOS guidance does not
indicate low ceilings. Given narrow dewpoint depressions and
light calm winds, each TAF will feature a mention of either
ground fog, or light patchy fog during the pre-dawn hours. After
sunrise, conditions will remain VFR with a light E wind. There
appears to be little to no chance of deep convection at the
terminals on Independence Day.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evenings,
Friday through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Late this afternoon, KCLX detected a cluster of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across portions of Long and Tattnall Counties. This
activity should continue to drift south, crossing the Altamaha River
between 5 to 6 PM. Isolated coverage may linger across SE GA into
the early evening. However, conditions should rapidly stabilize
after sunset, resulting in the lingering convection to dissipate.

Overnight, forecast soundings indicate that moisture will remain
trapped below a llvl inversion. Below the inversion, patches of
stratus may develop and gradually build down to the sfc. This
process appears most likely over areas that received rainfall this
afternoon across SE GA. The forecast will mention patchy fog over
areas of wet soil. Using a blend of MOS, min temperatures are
forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the mid 70s across the
coastal counties.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
So far this afternoon, tidal departures within the CHS Harbor have
ranged around 1 ft. Given light winds it is expected that the
departure will gradually reduce as high tide approaches. However, it
appears that water levels will slightly exceed flood stage, around 7
ft MLLW. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued until 8 PM.

Onshore winds and the approach of the new moon will lead to elevated
tides on Independence Day along the Charleston and Colleton county
coasts. Tides levels could approach minor coastal flooding criteria
of 7 ft MLLW in the Charleston Harbor with the evening high tide
Thursday. Further south, no tide issues are expected.&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-
     050.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ACD/NED
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...ACD/BRM/NED
MARINE...ACD/BRM/NED