953
FXUS62 KCHS 040522
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
122 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will linger near the area tonight. Through the
rest of the week, a hot and humid air mass will build over the
region. A weak cold front could approach the region by early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Some of the ensembles and MOS hint at fog forming over portions
of our area late tonight through daybreak. This is most likely
across southeast GA, which received rainfall yesterday. This
moisture is trapped below a low-level inversion, causing the
fog potential. Temperatures are forecast to range from the low
70s inland to the mid 70s across the coastal counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mid level ridge across the southern CONUS will remain in place
through the period. The surface pattern feature high pressure
offshore and trough of low pressure inland. A weak front will
approach the region on Saturday but will stay west of the local
area. The weather should be fairly quiet for Independence Day with
influence of the ridge helping to limit convection. We keep the
forecast area mostly dry, with the exception of an isolated shower
or thunderstorm across our extreme southeastern Georgia counties as
the deeper moisture resides just to our south. Temperatures will
peak in the upper 80s along the beaches and Downtown Charleston and
the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows will reach down into
the upper 70s along the beaches/Downtown Charleston and the low to
mid 70s inland.

Friday and Saturday should be a bit more convectively active,
especially inland. There could be development with the sea breeze,
but it appears most will trigger via llvl convergence near the
inland trough and then move into the local area from the west. The
forecast reflects POPs around 30-45% far inland on Friday, and
increasing to 50-65% Saturday as mid-level moisture advection ramps
up. High temps on Friday will reach the mid to upper 90s Friday and
around the middle 90s Saturday. It will feel even hotter with heat
indices approaching the local Heat Advisory criteria of 108 degrees
in spots. Friday looks marginal, with Saturday having the better
chance for excessive heat headlines. Low temperatures will remain in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging aloft will prevail through the middle of next week with a
broad trough to the northwest and a weakening closed low nearing the
Southeast US coast. The surface pattern maintains high pressure
offshore and troughing inland. Guidance indicates PWats exceeding 2
inches through much of the period. We are anticipating a slightly
more active period with at least scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible each day. The greatest coverage is expected in the
afternoon and evenings. Max temperatures are forecast to stay
slightly above normal, in the low to mid 90s through next week, with
lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z TAFs: VFR is expected for the first few hours of the TAFs.
Some of the MOS and ensembles hint at flight restrictions late
tonight through daybreak due to the potential for fog. For this
reason, we opted to maintain the TEMPO MVFR in each TAF. After
daybreak conditions will be VFR. Expect SE winds during the
afternoon. No convection is expected at the TAF sites this
Independence Day.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evenings,
Friday through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Easterly winds should ease to 5-10 kts after midnight.
Seas are expected to average 2-4 ft.

Thursday through Monday: Northeast/east winds initially will
turn southerly by late week. Marine conditions should stay
solidly below small craft advisory criteria with speeds 15 knots
or less and seas averaging 2-3 feet.

Rip currents: Longer period swell and the approaching new moon
will lead to an elevated risk for rip currents on Thursday.
Local calculations give borderline low-moderate risk, but given
the Independence Day holiday, opted for moderate.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...BRM
MARINE...ACD/BRM/NED