442
FXUS62 KCHS 082345
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
745 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will extend across the area through the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: The afternoon brought very typical and
pulseythunderstorm activity. Through the afternoon, most of
the convection was trying to push inland but then put out
outflow boundaries that brought the focus for new development
back toward the coast. Most of the area has now been worked over
either by convection or by outflow, so we are starting to see
the coverage and intensity decline. The best chance for
additional development this evening is likely southeast GA,
south of I-16 closer to the coast. The severe threat will
continue to lower, though even the tallest storms of the day
from the afternoon were seemingly unable to produce any severe
weather. Convective activity should mostly come to an end by
around midnight. For the overnight, there are some indications
in the hi-res guidance that there will be a more nocturnal
convection across the coastal waters compared to the last few
nights. But current thinking is that this activity will remain
offshore through sunrise. There are no significant fog concerns
but there could be at least some shallow ground fog in areas
that received thunderstorms rains this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aloft, a broad ridge extending across the Southeast from the
Atlantic will gradually erode mid-week as h5 vort energy
associated with a shortwave tracks across the Tennessee Valley
towards the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast into late week. At the
sfc, the pattern will resemble a typical summer-like pattern,
with the local area nestled between an Atlantic ridge centered
offshore and troughing developing inland each day. Although wind
shear remains weak during this time frame, ample moisture
(PWATs around 2 inches) and sfc heating supports higher
instability, with SBCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg, low- lvl lapse
rates between -7.5 to -8.5 C/km and modest levels of DCAPE
favoring scattered to numerous shower/thunderstorm activity each
afternoon/evening and the potential for some strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, particularly Wednesday and Thursday when mid-lvl
forcing is somewhat enhanced across the sfc trough inland.
Slower storm motions also suggest the potential for minor
flooding during heavy downpours on Wednesday, although there
could be a limited risk for minor flooding each day due to
convection anchored along outflow/boundary interactions. The
latest SPC Day 2 and 3 Outlooks include a Marginal Risk for
severe weather across much of Southeast South Carolina and
Southeast Georgia Wednesday and Thursday, while the WPC Day 2
Excessive Rainfall Outlook includes much of the area in a
Marginal Risk on Wednesday.

High temperatures will reach the upper 80s near the beaches to
lower 90s inland on Wednesday and Thursday, then warm 1-2
degrees higher on Friday. Overnight lows will remain mild,
generally in the low-mid 70s inland to upper 70s/around 80 at
the beaches and across Downtown Charleston.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aloft, broad troughing will weaken while exiting across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this weekend, allowing a ridge to
build back across the Southeast United States through early next
week. Otherwise, little change is expected in the overall
synoptic pattern and the forecast. Typical diurnal convection
will continue with scattered showers and thunderstorms forming
each day in the afternoon/evening. Highs will be above normal,
peaking the mid 90s most places over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and
KSAV. However, we will have to watch KSAV for shower and
thunderstorm development through 02z as an outflow boundary
passes through that could kick off some activity. This should be
relatively short-lived and then VFR conditions should prevail
through the overnight for all 3 sites. Another round of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is expected on
Wednesday. Still too far out to introduce any TSRA in the TAF`s,
but we did add in VCTS at KSAV as hi-res model guidance
suggests chances are highest there.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. However, brief flight restrictions are
possible each day due to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Southwest winds will back to the south this afternoon
with the sea breeze with southerly winds then holding through
the overnight period. Speeds will generally range from 10-15 kt,
but will be closer to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt near the
land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor near and behind the sea
breeze. Seas will average 2-3 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: A fairly typical summertime pattern
will remain in place for much of the week with Atlantic high
pressure centered offshore and a weak trough developing inland
each day. Relatively benign conditions are expected across local
waters as a result, with south to southwest winds around 15 kt
and seas between 2-4 ft through late week, although gusts up to
20 kt are possible along the Charleston County Coast and in the
Charleston Harbor due to sea breeze influences each afternoon.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...DPB/SST