452
FXUS61 KCAR 040917
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
517 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will exit early today. A weak cold front will
stall along the Downeast coast tonight. The front then slowly
lifts back north Friday into Saturday. Another weak cold front
will begin to cross the region Sunday and move east of the
region Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm front will exit the region this morning. Scattered
showers will occur across northern and central areas this
morning, with isolated showers Downeast. A break in the showers
should occur early this afternoon. A weak cold front will
begin to approach northern areas later this afternoon. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms could begin to re-develop across northern
areas later this afternoon in advance of the cold front.
Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies this morning then a
partly sunny/mostly cloudy afternoon. The weak cold front will
reach the Downeast coast then stall later tonight. High pressure
across Quebec province will begin to ridge across northern
areas later tonight. Isolated/scattered showers will accompany
the front early tonight. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies
across northern areas overnight, with mostly cloudy skies
Downeast. South of the stalling cold front, warm moist air over
the cold waters of the Gulf of Maine will lead to increasing fog
coverage tonight. The fog will move inland across Downeast
areas overnight. High temperatures today will range from around
80 to the lower 80s north, to the mid to upper 70s interior
Downeast with lower to mid 70s along the Downeast coast with
onshore winds. Low temperatures tonight will range from around
60 to the lower 60s north, to the upper 50s to around 60
interior Downeast with mid to upper 50s along the Downeast
coast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...
A weak cold front stalls roughly over central portions of the
area, and should provide the focus for afternoon showers and
storms. Not that much instability, and weak upper level dynamics
with fairly flat WSW flow. However, fairly moist airmass and a
bit of speed shear aloft. Expect showers and perhaps a few
storms to fire especially near the Central Highlands and move
off to the east. Not expecting anything strong or severe. Went
with PoPs as high as about 45 percent near the higher terrain.
Warm and fairly muggy, with highs in the low to mid 80s, except
a little cooler near the coast.

Friday Night...
Mild night with lows in the low to mid 60s. Generally dry,
though can`t rule out a few showers, or some drizzle where fog
occurs. Marine layer with low clouds and fog should make it
inland to at least Lincoln and possibly further north, as low-
level southerly flow increases a bit through the night.

Saturday...
Increasing S/SW flow Saturday with intermittent showers and
perhaps a few storms (nothing strong or severe expected).
Airmass will be quite moist and could be some pretty good
downpours on Saturday. However, one thing working against
heavier rain is weak dynamics, as the approaching upper level
trough flattens significantly as it reaches us. Not as warm
Saturday thanks to clouds and rain, with highs in the vicinity
of 70. Muggy however.

Saturday Night...
Some very slightly drier air works in from the west Saturday
night with less shower activity than during the day Saturday.
Still mild with lows in the 60s, with some fog especially toward
the coast, but possible anywhere.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Well above average temperatures and muggy conditions continue.
The low-level flow becomes a bit more westerly Sunday into
Sunday night, with perhaps a very weak cold front coming
through. Can`t rule out a few showers and storms Sunday
afternoon, but looking much drier than Saturday. Sunday night
through Monday night look dry with high pressure building in.
Only a slight drop in dewpoints and it remains fairly muggy, and
warm. Next system begins to increase PoP chances toward late
Tuesday or Wednesday, with some model disagreement on the speed
of the next system. Highs mainly in the 80s with lows mainly in
the 60s, with muggy conditions, likely to continue into
Wednesday and Thursday. It was the warmest June on record for
Caribou, and July is continuing this pattern.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR possible across northern areas with
isolated/scattered showers this morning, then again later this
afternoon through early tonight with an isolated thunderstorm
also possible. VFR Downeast today, with isolated showers
possible this morning. VFR with isolated showers early tonight.
Variable conditions with fog then develop Downeast overnight.
South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
today. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots tonight. Southwesterly low
level wind shear across northern areas early this morning.

SHORT TERM: Friday through Friday night...Generally VFR. Slight
chance/chance of mostly afternoon showers. However, variable
conditions Downeast with potential fog early Friday then again
Friday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...Generally MVFR with possible IFR with intermittent
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Worst conditions near the
coast including BHB where IFR is possible all day.
South winds around 10 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Variable conditions
with fog. South winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR early. VFR during the afternoon. A chance of
showers. West/Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sun night-Mon...VFR, with brief MVFR/IFR in patchy fog Sun
night. Light west/southwest winds.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through tonight. Isolated showers today through early tonight.
Visibilities lower with increasing fog coverage tonight.

SHORT TERM: Intermittent low clouds and fog over the waters
Friday through Sunday, worst in the overnight hours. Winds/seas
get close to small craft levels late Saturday into Saturday
night. Otherwise, below small craft.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Norcross/Foisy
Marine...Norcross/Foisy