Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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366 FXUS61 KCAR 070815 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 415 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front will stall over the area today. High pressure builds in from the west tonight and Monday. A weak surface trough approaches from the north Tuesday night. Low pressure then approaches from the west Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Very weak flow over the area tonight leading to areas of fog, some of it locally dense at times. Remnant MCV has brought showers and tstms along the coast tonight. Expect these will move into New Brunswick by 09z. As they move through, visibilities rise to around 1 mile before dropping back down toward 1/4 to 1/2 mile. Vort max currently over srn Michigan will eject twd the nrn half of CWA this morning. This, in combination with favorable RRQ of upr lvl jet, will allow showers to develop along and north of the front mid-late morning. With diurnal heating expected, CAPES will range from 500-800 J/kg and have continued mention of isolated storms to the north of Moosehead to Danforth line in the afternoon and early evening hours. Temps will top out above 80 across the north and into the middle 80s over Downeast, cooler along the coast. Front will remain over srn portions of the area tonight as it slowly dies in place. This will be favorable for more fog to the south of the boundary over Downeast. Further to the north clearing skies will likely lead to patchy fog with temps dropping into the upr 50s over portions of the North Woods where winds are able to decouple. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Very warm and humid air mass remains in place through Tuesday as a west to southwest flow aloft persists. Afternoon highs both Monday and Tuesday will climb into the mid to upper 80s away from the coast. Dew points will be in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees both afternoons. Heat indices both days may approach the low 90s toward the Bangor region, but are expected to remain below advisory levels at this time. Expect any patchy fog to burn off early and give way to mainly sunny skies. Despite the warm and muggy air mass in place across the region on Monday, the building ridge/warming aloft should inhibit any threat of convection. Monday night is expected to be mainly clear to partly cloudy, warm and muggy. Lows will generally be in the mid 60s. By Tuesday, the 500MB heights begin to decrease across the area in advance of an approaching short wave and weak surface cold front from Quebec. This will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorm by afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The weak front moves into the area later Tuesday night and early Wednesday before stalling out near the coast. Expect mainly cloudy skies and the chance for showers along with patchy fog Tuesday night. Wednesday will still be quite humid although afternoon highs will not be quite as warm as Tuesday`s. Uncertainty still exists mid to late week regarding how much moisture makes it into the area from Beryl. The 0z operational GFS/EC continue to be the most bullish in bringing a good slug of moisture into the state from Beryl later Wednesday night and into Thursday. 0Z CMC on the other hand was less aggressive. At this point, just continued to follow NBM POPs through the mid to late week period. It still appears that temperatures will continue to run a bit above normal for much of the late week period along with continued muggy conditions. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR expected tonight before conditions slowly improve to MVFR after 13z this morning. Improvement to VFR at all terminals this afternoon with showers possible, along with an isolated storm. SHORT TERM: Mon...VFR. Mon night...VFR, possible lower conditions in late night patchy fog. Tue... VFR. Chance of a showers and thunderstorms. Tue night through Thu...MVFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Headlines are not expected today or tonight. Visibilities will continue to be reduced below one mile at times through the period in fog. Seas drop to below 4ft this afternoon and range between 1 to 3 feet tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA levels through mid week. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 NM at times in patchy nighttime and early morning fog. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Buster Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...Buster/TWD Marine...Buster/TWD