Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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363 FXUS61 KCAR 060744 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 344 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will remained stalled across the north today. A weak cold front will begin to cross the region Sunday and move east of the region Monday. A weak surface boundary approaches from the north Tuesday with a cold front crossing the area Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Stationary boundary remains acrs nrn CWA this morning with weak sfc low located over eastern NY. This is keeping CWA in a warm and humid airmass with patchy to areas of fog commonplace tonight. Area of showers, along with an isolated tstm, is lifting over the waters with elevated convection likely. Showers will become increasingly likely acrs the area this morning and into this afternoon with a combination of diurnal heating and in favorable region of upr level jet. Elevated instability looks to be present over most of the area today with isolated thunder fcst this afternoon and this evening. Given low clouds and fog this morning, not expecting much in the way of temp rise with lwr 70s acrs the north and m70s over the Central Highlands tda. Upr 60s expected over Downeast with areas along the immediate shoreline stuck in the 60s. For tonight expected showers will begin to wane fm west to east as front pushes through the region. Patchy fog expected over the region late this evening and through the overnight with min temps remaining in the lwr to middle 60s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Warm and muggy air mass remains in place through the short term. Strong upper level ridge remains along the eastern seaboard with west to southwest flow aloft persisting. A weak boundary will still be bisecting the region during Sunday as weak short wave crosses the crown of Maine. Thus, expect the chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the north of the Katahdin region Sunday afternoon. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 80s north to the mid 80s for the Bangor region and interior Downeast. Expect cooler along the coast. The short wave exits Sunday evening as the boundary sinks slowly south to the coast. Any early evening showers across northern areas will end early in the evening and give way to mainly clear to partly cloudy skies Sunday night. Lows fall into the low to mid 60s Sunday night. Patchy fog is expected as well. The upper ridge will persist Monday and Monday night. Expect very warm and muggy conditions on Monday with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s away from the coast. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s will make it feel quite uncomfortable during Monday. Despite the very warm and muggy conditions, warming aloft will likley cap any thunderstorm development Monday afternoon. Warm and muggy conditions are expected Monday night. Lows will only fall into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday is another very warm and humid day with highs inland climbing well into the 80s to perhaps the 90 degree mark in a few spots. An approaching upper trof and surface cold front from the west could result in an afternoon shower or thunderstorm later Tuesday. Unsettled conditions with the chance for showers and thunderstorms continues Tuesday night through Wednesday. Somewhat drier and cooler air is expected behind the front later Wednesday night and Thursday. Another system brings the chance for my showers late week. Afternoon highs mid to late week will average a bit above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Northern Aroostook terminals from PQI north will be mix of MVFR/VFR for the first hour or two tonight before dropping to IFR and eventually LIFR between 08-10z. Cigs and patchy fog will bring restrictions to terminals with improvement by mid-morning to IFR. HUL and BGR will see LIFR into this afternoon before brief improvement to IFR. BHB likely to see LIFR next 24 hours. SHORT TERM: Sun...IFR in low clouds/patchy fog early then becoming VFR. Sun night...IFR in low clouds/patchy fog. Mon...IFR early, then VFR. Mon night...VFR, except possible IFR vicinity KBHB. Tue...VFR. Tue night and Wed...MVFR or lower. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Southerly winds increase this morning but stable airmass will keep gusts around 20kts through the period. Seas will increase to near 5ft on the far outer reaches of the waters this evening but small craft conditions will be very marginal with no headlines anticipated. Visibilities will be reduced below one miles at time this morning and tonight in fog. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will generally remain below SCA levels through mid week. Patchy fog may reduce visibility to 1 to 3 NM at times. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Buster Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...Buster/TWD Marine...Buster/TWD