798
FXUS62 KCAE 040002
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
802 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases through the week and into the weekend with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each
afternoon. Above normal temperatures are expected and Heat
Index values around 110 are possible Friday through Sunday.
Atmospheric moisture remains high through the long term
supporting a chance of rain each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):
- Low-level Moisture increasing tonight

The surface ridge will shift east tonight and the moisture will
increases a result. Forecast soundings indicate that the
majority of the moisture increase will be in the low levels.
While there is the possibility of some low stratus developing
tonight, there remains a decent amount of low level dry air to
overcome. Guidance temps consistent with lows in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Heat Index values up to 110 possible Friday. A Heat Advisory
  may be needed.

Upper level ridging will build over the Forecast Area (FA) during
the short term as low level moisture increases through southerly
flow. The main concern for the period will be Friday afternoon
where Heat Index values should reach the 105 to 110 range.
With PWAT values increasing to near 2 inches on Friday and upper
ridging over the FA there should be sufficient heat and
moisture to raise heat-related illness concerns and may prompt a
Heat Advisory. Thursday afternoon appears too dry to meet
criteria with afternoon dewpoints mixing into the 60s.

Showers are unlikely Thursday due to a drier airmass and warm
temps aloft. However we can`t rule out an isolated shower or
weak storm in the afternoon. A low number of HREF and SREF
members have convective precipitation on Thursday afternoon. On
Friday, with temperatures reaching near 100 degrees, closer to
the convective temperature, and PWAT values from 1.75 to 2
inches, we are more likely to see isolated or widely scattered
storms. Forecast soundings show a tall, skinny CAPE profile
indicating limited potential for severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):
- Increased risk of heat-related illnesses this weekend
- A Heat Advisory may be needed Saturday and Sunday

Moisture continues to increase through the weekend with hot and
humid conditions expected through early next week. Heat Index
values on Saturday and Sunday of around 110 degrees are
possible. Considering non-environmental factors of being a
holiday weekend and increased exposure, the risk of heat-related
illnesses could be higher than normal. A Heat Advisory may be
needed for Saturday and Sunday. However the possibility for
decent convective coverage does limit confidence in reaching
criteria.

Ridging should remain over the Southeast despite an upper
trough expected to move through the Great Lakes region Friday
and into northern New England on Saturday. A frontal boundary,
associated with the trough, will approach the Southeast with
significant moisture pooling over our FA. This pattern supports
increasing rain chances in the long term with PWAT values
slightly above normal. The upper ridge may limit widespread
convection, but we should see a chance of rain each day through
the extended. The highest rain chances may be Sat and Sun with
the weak frontal boundary in the vicinity before it becomes
diffuse early next week. Isolated strong or severe storms are
possible as afternoon CAPE values increase due to the
higher moisture. Near or above normal PWAT values continue
through the end of the forecast period supporting climatological
rain chances through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period with restrictions
possible during the early morning and sunrise hours.

High pressure remains in control of the region with mostly clear
skies across the area as remaining cumulus continue dissipating.
Winds have also diminished and will remain light and variable
through mid morning Thursday. Main concern overnight will again
be the potential for early morning and sunrise stratus and fog.
Models continue to indicate lowering potential for restrictions
however with the clear skies...higher moisture and lack of a LLJ
overnight have remained with mention of MVFR to IFR cigs and
vsbys at OGB/AGS/DNL between 09 and 12z. Restrictions which
develop will quickly dissipate with sunrise and the remainder of
the period will be VFR. Although moisture will be increasing
during the day convection is not expected at any terminal. Winds
from 14z through the end of the period will be S to SW at 7
knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms and associated restrictions Friday through
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Key messages(s):
-Hot and dry conditions continue through Independence Day
-Rainfall probabilities increasing Friday through early next
 week

Hot and dry conditions will continue through Independence Day
with increasing moisture and chances of showers and
thunderstorms Friday into early next week. Although there was
some rain late in the weekend and into early this week the hot
and dry conditions over the past few days and through Thursday
will generally minimize any improvement from the rain. Moisture
will begin increasing Thursday with scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms beginning Friday mainly along and north of
I-20 then spreading eastward Saturday into early next week.
Temperatures will also be a concern with afternoon highs in the
upper 90s to around 100 which will push heat index values to
around 105 Thursday and 110 Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$