Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
821 FXUS62 KCAE 271730 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 130 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A few stronger thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening as an upper low lingers near the forecast area. Typical summertime weather expected this weekend and into early next week with near to slightly above normal temperatures and daily shower and thunderstorm chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Scattered thunderstorms and highs temps slightly above average this afternoon. The slow moving upper level low that has regarded back across the Southeast the last few days is finally weakening and phasing with the southwesterly background flow. As such, flow has steady shifted out of the southeast and allowed moisture to slowly return across the area, evident in the far more extensive cu field this afternoon compared to yesterday. Instability is not expected to get terribly strong this afternoon thanks to limited mid-level lapse rates, generally ML CAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg. Hi-res guidance is consistent and lines up with the expected behavior given the mesoanalysis, so scattered showers- storms possible across the I-20 into the evening. A few strong storms are possible this evening, but overall some typical summer pulse are expected limited by some lingering dry air and not terribly impressive instability. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Typical summertime pattern with scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms and seasonably hot conditions. The weakening upper low currently situated in southern GA will continue to slowly lift northwestward this weekend before getting caught up in the synoptic flow into Sunday. This feature coupled with PWAT`s near 1.8-1.95" could bring subtle forcing in an otherwise weakly forced and typical summer environment Saturday and Sunday, aiding in bringing isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the evening each day. 12z model guidance continues to show a low severe risk with instability being a bit lower (around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) and low level mixing/lapse rates that are not as impressive as previous days. As per usual this time of the year however, an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled with frequent lightning, and possible damaging winds being the potential hazards. Conditions remain warm and muggy with highs each day in the low to mid 90s and heat indices that near the triple digits each afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message(s): - Near average temperatures and typical summer diurnal convection expected into the early week. - Increased PoP`s into the mid-week with troughing and potential cold front nearing the region. Not much change with this forecast package looking into the extended. Ensemble guidance remains in fairly good agreement that the subtropical ridge remains in place through the early week, driving near normal temperatures and typical summertime afternoon convection before this is replaced with troughing across the eastern CONUS during the mid-week. GEFS and EC Ensemble members have come into better agreement that a plume of PWAT`s near to just over 2" should move in late Tuesday, lingering through at least Wednesday as a slow moving, weak front nears the Appalachian Mountains. With LREF probabilities for PWAT`s over 2" nearing 50-60% and at least decent forcing nearing the region late Tuesday, possibly through Thursday, increased PoP`s are expected at this time before ridging may build back in toward the end of the forecast period. Temperatures for the mid-week are generally expected to be near normal, but depending on the evolution of the front and rain chances, it could be a degree or two below normal Wednesday. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Generally VFR conditions through the forecast period outside of possible thunderstorms in the afternoon. Typical summer weather in place for the TAF sites this afternoon with VFR conditions likely for much of the afternoon. A few pop up storms are the main feature of note which could bring with it typical restrictions, but confidence is only high enough for a VCTS mention from 20-00z this afternoon. Otherwise winds will remain of the southeast this afternoon and weaken overnight tonight. Not expecting any real fog Saturday morning but some slight reductions in vsby possible around sunrise, but should remain VFR. AGS and OGB could see their typical MIFG related issues, so lined that up in the TAFs. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy fog possible each night. Diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms expected Saturday and Sunday. A front could approach the Southeast next week leading to increased thunderstorm chances. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...