205
FXUS61 KBUF 051436
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1036 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will remain draped across our region today, with a few
showers and thunderstorms, becoming likely this evening as
additional energy aloft arrives. A weak cold front will cross the
region early Saturday, resulting in afternoon temperatures a degree
or two cooler, yet still moderately humid. High pressure crossing
the region later Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend
will promote fair weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Summer`s humidity will linger across the region today as a weak
warm frontal boundary reside across the region. A few showers
this morning across the Finger Lakes region, with a few
thunderstorms possible this afternoon as instability builds.

Coverage area of convection will increase this evening as a
stronger shortwave trough emerges from the Central Great Lakes.
Heights falls ahead of this shortwave, coupled with the right
entrance region of a 300 hPa Jet will give broad scale lift,
that will likely bring showers and thunderstorms this evening to
WNY, with activity drifting to eastern zones ahead of a late
night arriving cold front.

Winds in the lowest few KM have decreased in recent model runs, but
still moderately fast flow in the mid levels will continue 0-6 km
bulk shear values in the 45 to 50 knot range. Partly sunny skies
this afternoon will help MUCAPE to build to several hundred to as
much as 1000 J/KG that should give enough buoyancy for storms to
grow upon this evening. Overnight timing is not great, but given the
stronger shear a few storms could bring gusty winds as highlighted
by SPC`s Marginal Risk for our region. Confidence is still low for
severe storms, though the wind field aloft is great, the late
evening timing and potential marginal instability may just keep
storms as garden variety. Additionally, moisture advection tonight
could prime the atmosphere for some heavier downpours. PWATs are not
as high as recent days, generally in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range.

Highs temperatures today ranging through the 80s and lows tonight
in the mid 60s to around 70F. The moist boundary layer and
light wind flow could produce a little fog across the Southern
Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave and weak surface low will track into southern Quebec on
Saturday, with an associated cold front pushing east of our area
during the day. Saturday will be breezy cooler in the wake of this
cold frontal passage. Outside of a few lingering chances for some
showers across the eastern Lake Ontario and western Finger Lakes
regions, the remainder of the region should be rain-free.

High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Saturday night will make
its way into New England Sunday and Sunday night. This will bring
dry weather featuring comfortable humidity levels and plenty of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure across New England will set up a southerly return flow
which will in warm and moist air into the region supporting summer-
like temperatures. Highs Monday will range in the 80s.

The next mid-level trough will begin to slide across the Great Lakes
Monday night through Wednesday. This will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday, with the greatest
chances Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low confidence in
temperatures Tuesday, with model differences in precipitation timing
and 850mb temps, but in general it`s likely to be another hot day.
After that, the trough will bring cooler weather for the rest of the
work week. High pressure will then build across the area Thursday
bringing a return to dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak warm frontal boundary remains draped across the region. As
instability builds this afternoon, a few showers and storms
will become possible, with coverage area increasing this evening
as yet another convective shortwave passes through the region.

Additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will remain through
the overnight, with a cold front entering WNY late. While any storm
could bring brief reductions in a downpour, there is a decent flow
aloft that could translate to the surface in any stronger storm,
with localized stronger wind gusts.

In this moisture rich boundary layer patches of fog will remain
possible tonight, especially for the Southern Tier and east of Lake
Ontario.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.MARINE...
With weak surface high pressure nearby, winds will remain light on
the Lakes today with minimal wave action. A cold front will cross
the eastern Great Lakes late tonight and tomorrow, with a southwest
wind freshening behind the front. With southwest winds to 20 knots a
small craft advisory may be needed for Lake Erie. High pressure will
again build over the Lakes the later half of the weekend and into
the start of next week. This feature will bring light winds and
waves to the Lakes. The pressure gradient will be light enough on
both Sunday and Monday to allow for some local lake breezes to form
though.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel/EAJ
LONG TERM...Apffel/EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Thomas