552
FXUS61 KBUF 060813
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
413 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push east of the area today, ushering in slightly
cooler and less humid weather for the remainder of the weekend.
There may be a few showers and thunderstorms today, but then high
pressure will build in and bring fair weather tonight through Monday
night. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday
and Wednesday when a trough of low pressure moves across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid-level trough across the Great Lakes will weaken and eventually
flatten out today. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front will quickly
sweep from west to east across the region this morning. The frontal
boundary and mid level trough will maintain a risk for some showers
and thunderstorms today, mainly across the Eastern Lake Ontario
region and interior locations. Southwesterly winds behind the front
will provide a rain-free lake shadow for the Niagara Frontier today,
although winds will gust to around 30 mph. The weak boundary will
result in slightly cooler and less humid weather today, with highs
in the upper 70s to mid 80s and dew points dropping into the mid 60s
this afternoon.

Tonight, high pressure centered near Ohio will ridge into our
region, providing fair weather and mostly clear skies. Good
radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to drop into
the mid to upper 50s across the Southern Tier where some river
valley fog is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will pass across our region Sunday, with light
winds and comfortable levels of humidity. Developing lake breeze
circulations through the afternoon will build a little cumulus, but
shortwave ridge axis over our region and lacking deep moisture
should keep the day dry.

Pleasant sleeping conditions for Sunday night with lows dropping
back into the upper 50s interior higher spots, to low/mid 60s closer
to the Lakes and through the Finger Lakes.

Monday the surface ridge will advance to the east, with a southerly
return flow aloft developing through the day. Though dewpoints will
begin to creep upwards, they will still remain fairly comfortable,
save for the Finger Lakes/Southeast of Lake Ontario region where the
axis of low level moisture will push dewpoints into the mid to upper
60s. However the advection of a warmer airmass (850 hPa temperatures
in the mid to upper teens Celsius) and a fair amount of sunshine
will bring afternoon highs back into the mid 80s to around 90F.

Though Monday should remain dry, the increasing moisture may bring a
shower or two Monday night to the Finger Lakes/Southeast of Lake
Ontario. Monday night will also return back to the mugginess, with
overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday and Tuesday night will likely be the most active timeframe
for this period as a mid level trough approaches our region, sending
a plume of deeper moisture across our region that will enhance
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and overnight.

The continued northward advection of warmth and moisture out ahead
of this system will send PWATs back up to between 1.5 and 2.0 inches
during Tuesday...and this in tandem with daytime heating and
increasing large-scale ascent will support the likelihood of another
round of showers and thunderstorms...with the best chances for these
likely coming between Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise it
should be very warm and humid again before the convection arrives on
Tuesday...with highs generally ranging through the 80s and surface
dewpoints running between 65 and 70.

Latest model consensus supports the initial trailing cold front from
this system crossing our area Tuesday night...with a weaker
secondary boundary then following suit during Wednesday. Coupled
with broad troughing aloft...this may allow some additional
scattered showers/isolated storms to persist through Wednesday.
Otherwise cooler and more comfortable air will filter back across
our region following the passage of the above cold fronts...with
highs Wednesday pulling back to the upper 70s/lower 80s...and lows
Wednesday night dipping back into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

After that...high pressure looks to build across the region
Thursday...before sliding out across New England on Friday. This
will result in generally dry weather to close out the work week...
with continued comfortable temperatures Thursday/Thursday night
giving way to warmer readings on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR flight conditions to start the 06Z TAFS. A cold front
will move from west to east across the area early this morning.
There`s risk for fog and/or stratus across the Western Southern Tier
with IFR conditions likely to develop. Elsewhere there`s a small
risk for MVFR or lower in showers and patchy stratus through this
morning.

Drier air will build into the region behind the cold front this
afternoon. Widespread VFR flight conditions by this afternoon which
will last through at least this evening. Late tonight patchy river
valley fog is likely in the Southern Tier.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms
likely.
Wednesday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will pick up today, following the passage of a cold front.
Conditions will approach small craft criteria on Lake Erie today,
with southwesterly winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots at times this
afternoon. Elsewhere winds pick up but will remain below sca
criteria.

High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes Sunday and into
the start of next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions
through mid week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds
and limited waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake
breezes to form each day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...JJR/Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel/HSK
MARINE...Apffel/TMA