Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
422 FXUS61 KBUF 112043 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 443 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A few pop up showers and storms are possible through this evening, mainly from the interior Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes region. A few more showers and storms will be possible late tonight across western New York. Otherwise, heat and humidity will be on the rise through the weekend. A slow-moving cold front will push through the area Sunday and Sunday night with widespread showers and thunderstorms, some producing locally heavy rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Instability gradually increasing this afternoon and will bring the opportunity for a few showers and thunderstorms inland from lake breezes, mainly across the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes region into early this evening. A lead shortwave over the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes will approach the region tonight. Warm air advection and deep moisture will increase chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across far western New York after midnight. This activity may linger farther to the east during Saturday morning. Heat and humidity build on Saturday. Temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s, with a few lower 90s in the Genesee Valley and the lake plains south of Lake Ontario. Dewpoints are forecast near 70 degrees, which may result in heat indices in the mid 90s along the lake plains/Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes. Heat advisories may eventually be needed depending upon amount of cloud cover, especially early in the day. Warm air aloft will likely keep most of the region capped, however some CAMs do show at least some potential for widely scattered afternoon convection, mainly across the Finger Lakes region into Central New York. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another warm and humid day expected Sunday, but it does not look quite as hot as Saturday. Some of the warmest heat indices could still get into the lower 90s along the lake plains/Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes. All this heat and humidity will be ahead of an approaching cold front slowly pushing into the region, resulting in increasing cover coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values rising to 2+" will bring the risk of locally heavy rainfall. Flooding concerns will certainly be elevated during this time, especially from slower moving thunderstorms combined with somewhat lower 3 hour flash flood guidance in the 2-2.5" inch range. The greatest threat will be from the interior Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... After the mid-level trough`s axis passes across the eastern Great Lakes and into New England Monday, ridging will build overhead through mid week ahead of the next trough`s passage later in the week. This all being said, as the corresponding cold front from Sunday finishes exiting eastern New York Monday morning, dry weather will return and last through much of the first half of the week. While dry, the building ridge aloft will support southwest winds to advect in warm Gulf air into western and north central New York supporting hot and humid weather, featuring heat indices well into the 80s and even 90s by Wednesday. Guidance continues to support timing and strength differences with the next longwave trough and associated cold front`s arrival. This being said, kept a chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Friday. Additionally, with the front`s arrival expect an alleviation in the heat and humidity for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR flight conditions will continue late this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes region, inland from lake breezes. Localized, brief periods of IFR or below are possible, however probability is low that activity will reach TAF sites. Activity will diminish this evening before upstream activity from the west moves into western NY late tonight. Flight conditions will mainly stay VFR, however there is a low chance that a thunderstorm could produce a brief period of IFR or below. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR with localized IFR in valley fog across the Southern Tier early. Saturday night through Monday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Generally light winds and sub-advisory conditions over Lakes Erie and Ontario through Saturday. The next notable cold frontal passage expected Sunday with southerly flow increasing out ahead of the front. Following the cold front, winds become west and northwest by Sunday night, before weakening to less than 10 knots on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds in. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK/JM/JJR/TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...HSK/TMA/JM MARINE...Brothers/JJR/TMA