Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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439 FXUS61 KBUF 050222 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1022 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will wash out across Pennsylvania tonight, producing a few spotty showers across the area. Friday will be mainly dry and warm, with just a small chance of a few spotty showers or an afternoon thunderstorm. Weak low pressure will then cross the eastern Great Lakes Friday night with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region over the weekend with slightly cooler and less humid air. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/... Radar imagery late this evening showing a few areas of showers over Lake Erie and northwest PA, drifting slowly ENE. These showers are in association with a remnant weak MCV, which is providing a small area of enhanced moisture convergence. These spotty showers will drift into Western NY overnight. There is still some limited instability, so an isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, a wealth of dense mid/high clouds continue to stream over the area, with overcast skies through tonight. Some of the precipitation from tonight may linger into Friday morning, especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, along with a decent amount of cloud cover. This will help keep instability at bay, at least through the morning hours. How much the atmosphere can recover will be important in how much convection can develop during the afternoon with the main focus along a lake breeze or differential heating boundary. Subsidence behind the departing MCV and overall lack of large scale support or low level foci will keep the chance of showers and storms quite low through most of the day. The best chance will be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, with mainly dry weather favored on the lake plains. Very warm and humid conditions will continue Friday with most high temperatures in the mid 80s for lower elevations and lower 80s for higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A potent shortwave trough crossing the Great Lakes region Friday night and Saturday will support a surface low to slide northeast across the central Great Lakes Friday night, pulling across from west to east its cold front through the area. Ahead of the front, a strong southeasterly flow, along with the warm temperatures from earlier in the day will provide enough instability across the lower Great Lakes region to make for an active start to the night with showers and storms. This combined with the prefrontal trough, associated DPVA, and the area aligning beneath the equatorward entrance of the upper level jet overhead will support enough shear for showers to support a few storms to produce a few damaging winds. This being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the area beneath a marginal risk for severe weather Friday night, with damaging winds being the main concern. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, Saturday will be breezy featuring a brisk southwest wind with a few gusts across the lake plains peaking near 30mph. Otherwise, outside of a few lingering chances for some showers across the eastern Lake Ontario region, the remainder of the region should be rain-free and cooler with highs in the mid to upper 70s across western New York and east of Lake Ontario and a few low 80s across the northern Finger Lakes. High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Saturday night will make its way east-northeast across the lower Great Lakes and into New England Sunday and Sunday night. Overall the dry weather trend will continue featuring comfortable humidity levels and plenty of sunshine. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface ridging will slide east Monday, though the dry weather will persist. With the exiting high pressure, southerly flow will return and therefore advect in warm moist air into the region supporting summer-like temperatures. Highs Monday will range in the 80s. The next mid-level trough will begin to slide across the Great Lakes Monday night through the rest of the week. This will reinstall the chances for showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then looks to return late in the week. This being said, timing and tracking of the next system remains in question and things may change. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A wealth of mid/high clouds will continue to move across the region overnight, with CIGS generally lowering with time. A few areas of MVFR CIGS may develop late tonight and Friday morning across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier near the PA state line, otherwise VFR will prevail. A weakening area of light showers will cross the region overnight, but the spotty/light nature of this will keep VSBY mainly VFR. Friday, a few showers may linger in the morning, especially from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes. A bubble of drier air will then move across Western and Central NY for the bulk of the day, keeping the area mainly dry with VFR cloud bases. An upstream trough will approach Western NY late in the day, with increasing chances for a few showers and thunderstorms by early evening. Outlook... Friday night...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Saturday...Mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers. Sunday and Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely. && .MARINE... Winds will remain light tonight through Friday, generally 10 knots or less with little wave action. A cold front will move across the area Friday night, producing a few scattered thunderstorms with locally higher winds and waves. Southwest winds will increase Saturday behind the cold front, with winds and waves possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria, especially on Lake Erie. High pressure will build into the region Sunday, reducing the southwest flow on the lower Great Lakes. The surface high will move east Monday with a southerly flow favored. The pressure gradient will be light enough on both Sunday and Monday to allow for some local lake breezes to form. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/TMA SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA