403
FXUS61 KBUF 161831
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
231 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back
across the Lower Great Lakes through Tuesday night...and this will
maintain fair warm weather throughout our region. The only
difference from the past several days will be a thickening blanket
of cirrus that will push northward from the weak tropical system in
the vicinity of South Carolina. While a brief light shower cannot be
ruled out for parts of the Southern Tier on Wednesday...high
pressure will build back in to provide fair warm weather for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Fair warm weather will persist throughout the region during this
period...as stacked high pressure centered off the New England coast
will generally remain in place. There will be a thickening cirrus
shield that will advect northward across our area in the process
though...as a weak tropical system off the coast of South Carolina
will move inland and stall over the southern Appalachians.

Will continue to aim high on daytime temperatures...partly due to
the increasingly dry antecedent conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Model guidance is trending drier and warmer later in the work week
across the eastern Great Lakes region. A stacked closed low over the
southern Appalachians today will move east and open up and join a
trough along the east coast by Friday. A strong west to east
oriented ridge across the Great Lakes region will halt the forward
progress of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic region. Global
deterministic models and ensemble blends are consistent with this
trend. The chance for showers has lowered to 10-20% across the
western Southern Tier to Finger Lakes region Wednesday to Thursday.
Mid to high level moisture will be around and result in more cloud
cover across the region through Thursday. Temperatures will average
in the mid 70s to low 80s to the 50s at night. A light northeast
wind will keep the southern Lake Ontario lakeshore a few degrees
cooler through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A rex block will maintain warm and dry weather this weekend across
the eastern Great Lakes region. Above normal temperatures will
continue Friday through Monday, however highs will be a few degrees
lower than our current stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions with light winds can be expected through the TAF
period. The exception could be some valley fog across the western
Southern Tier late tonight...but given the addition of a fair amount
of cirrus...any fog will be less widespread/concentrated.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
eastern Great Lakes early this week, with light winds and minimal
wave action. Light synoptic scale winds will again allow local lake
breeze circulations to develop this afternoon with onshore winds of
5-10 knots in most areas.

The pressure gradient will tighten a bit by Tuesday as a low
pressure system slowly drifts northward from the Mid-Atlantic
states. This will lead to a prevailing light to moderate east-
northeasterly breeze on the lakes, which could result in a minor
chop on the western end of Lake Ontario at times. This low pressure
system could also bring a few showers to the lakes Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock/PP