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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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556 FXUS61 KBUF 180235 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1035 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry...more comfortable weather can now be expected for the foreseeable future. Sprawling high pressure over the Upper Mississippi valley early tonight will gradually settle across all of the Great Lakes and Ohio valley through the weekend and can be thanked for the change to fair pleasant conditions. Our next real chance for widespread precipitation will not come until the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY EVENING/... A mid-level trough will move across our region overnight, and this will gradually usher in a cooler and drier air mass. Can`t rule out a stray shower with this trough this evening before the drier air mass wins out later tonight. The light winds and partial clearing will allow for fairly good radiational cooling, and possibly some river valley fog in the Southern Tier. Lows will mainly be in the mid to upper 50s. On Thursday...surface high pressure will be centered near Iowa, with the mid level trough axis still across our region. The air mass should be too dry to support much precipitation, but isolated showers can`t completely be ruled out along with some strato-cumulus cloud cover. It will be notably cooler and more comfortable with highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Any remaining lingering showers will wrap up Thursday evening,then gradual clearing skies will likely take place. This will support good radiational cooling overnight, with the cooler spots found in the upper 40s and a range of 50s elsewhere. A spectacular finish to the work week is on tap for Friday and dry with low humidity levels. Highs on Friday will generally be found in the 70s. As we progress into the weekend a gradual day to day warming trend is advertised to take place. Other than that, high pressure anchored over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will likely keep much of the region dry. That said...there is a weakening front approaching from the north late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This feature may introduce a shower or isolated thunderstorm across the St. Lawrence Valley and North Country by Saturday night. Have kept very low end chance PoPs for now for the above locales. Otherwise...highs on Saturday will be found in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid-level low pressure centered over Quebec, Canada will amplify Sunday as a shortwave trough rounds its base. At the surface, high pressure spread across the area Saturday will remain mostly in place Sunday, however a backdoor cold front will slide southeast across New York state. This front looks to be moisture starved, and therefore a low chance for a few spotty showers. In the wake of this front, surface high pressure will re-establish itself across the lower Great Lakes for the start of the week, continuing dry weather Monday and Monday night. Uncertainty remains for Tuesday and Wednesday with a broad, weak trough over the Plains moving slowly east into the Mississippi Valley. This will support a diffuse area of moisture and general low pressure drifting northeast across the Ohio Valley. Depending on the northward extent of the moisture Tuesday, chances for showers will be possible, and remain likely south of the forecast area. As the moisture further creeps northward Wednesday, the chances for showers will continue. Otherwise, temperatures will warm this weekend with highs slightly above average for the end of the weekend and the start of next week. Highs will range in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly rain-free and VFR flight conditions tonight and Thursday. There`s a risk that river valley fog will bring IFR or lower visibility at KJHW, with a non-zero risk for fog elsewhere. There may be patchy MVFR cigs tonight and Thursday. Outlook... Thursday night through Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure over the Upper Mississippi valley early tonight will slowly settle across all of the Great Lakes region Thursday into the upcoming weekend. The resulting weak sfc pressure gradient will guarantee gentle to moderate breezes and negligible wave action through the period. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...Apffel SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...RSH MARINE...RSH