Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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119 FXUS61 KBUF 071812 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 212 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over Lake Erie will slowly drift east and provide us with fair dry weather through Monday night. A slow moving cold front will then sag across and stall over our region late Tuesday and Wednesday. Remnants from Beryl will circulate up across the forecast area during this period to help set the stage for the potential of some areas to receive multiple inches of rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Great weather will be found throughout the region for the rest of the afternoon...as high pressure centered over Lake Erie will provide us with wall to wall sunshine and temperatures that will mainly top out in the lower 80s. Another pleasant...star filled night can be expected tonight with temperatures settling into the upper 50s to lower 60s. As was the case this morning...the clear skies and light winds will encourage fog to form in the Southern Tier valleys. High pressure wedged from New England to West Virginia will then guarantee another sunny day to start the new work week. Temperatures aloft will nudge upwards into the mid teens C...so that will allow Mondays max temperatures to climb WELL into the 80s to near 90. While fair dry weather will persist Monday night...it will be a notably warmer night with lows ranging from the mid 60s across the Southern Tier and North country to nearly 70 degrees elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday our region will be near the advection of tropical moisture from two separate source. A southerly flow will bring Atlantic moisture northward from the Southeast. This moisture will track into our Finger Lakes region. Meanwhile ahead of a mid level trough, moisture from Tropical system Beryl will be streaming by just to our west. Between these two moisture plumes, much of our CWA will reside. On Tuesday, some lake breeze circulation showers and thunderstorms may form. Tuesday will also feature very sultry conditions with heat index values forecast to be in the low to mid 90s for portions of the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. Tuesday night as moisture from Beryl deepens across our region, additional showers and perhaps thunderstorms will begin to increase from the west. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...Significant Rains from Beryl Possible Wednesday... The two plumes of tropical moisture mentioned in the short term will converge upon our region Wednesday, resulting in a deep warm layer of over 14K feet with PWAT values 2.00 to 2.25 inches. In the lower levels convergence ahead of a 35 knot LLJ, along with a warm front draped over our region will combine with diffluent flow aloft, and lift along multiple shortwaves to spread a period of rain across our region. A mid level ridge may focus the better lift (diffluent flow) aloft to our north and west Wednesday...resulting in heavy rain to our west. But this heavier rain will advance into our region. By Wednesday night the surface warm front will be lifting towards the eastern Lake Ontario region, with a favored area for heavy rain here overnight. At this time WPC has upgraded our eastern two thirds of the CWA into a slight risk for excessive rainfall through Wednesday night. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to where the axis of heavier precipitation will be. Wednesday and Wednesday night will also have chances for thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values towards 1500 J/KG Wednesday diminishing Wednesday night east of Lake Ontario. The mid level trough will be slow to push eastward and flatten, leaving chances for additional showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday, especially during the peak heating of the afternoon. Heavy rain chances will be less this period with the axis of deeper moisture now to the east, along with a weakening LLJ. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure slowly moving across the region will guarantee fair, mainly VFR weather through the 18z TAF cycle. The main exception will be in and around any valley fog and low stratus that develops in the Southern Tier late tonight. This will likely cause reductions to vsbys down to IFR at KJHW between 07z/08z to 12z. Any fog will quickly lift and dissipate after sunrise Monday, with a return to areawide VFR. Outlook... Tuesday..Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Restrictions to IFR possible in heavy showers. Thursday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes through early next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions through mid week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds and limited waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake breezes to form each day. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas/RSH AVIATION...PP MARINE...Apffel/HSK