511
FXUS61 KBUF 041754
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
154 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will drop to near the New York and
Pennsylvania State line by this evening. A humid airmass along
with the nearby frontal boundary will bring the threat for a
shower or thunderstorm for some tonight into Friday. Another
system will bring more showers and thunderstorms Friday night.
Building high pressure will bring cooler and less humid
conditions for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A weak cold front will continue to drift south across the region
through this afternoon, eventually settling near the New
York/Pennsylvania state line. There is a chance for a shower near
the state line this afternoon, but with the axis of deeper
moisture and instability south of the region would expect this
activity to be isolated at best. Therefore, the expectation is
that the region will be dry through this afternoon, but still
remaining very warm and humid with most high temperatures in the
lower to mid 80s, with a few upper 80s across the Genesee
Valley and Finger Lakes.

Weak surface high pressure will settle across our region tonight,
with fair, but muggy weather. The lack of a decent pressure gradient
will result in light winds for this evening...slowing firework smoke
dissipation.

The lack of forcing with the weak surface high nearby will keep much
of the region dry tonight. However there is still plenty of moisture
within the boundary layer, and there are some hints that this
mornings MCS over KS/MO may eject a subtle shortwave over our region
tonight. Energy from this feature, along with weak instability of
100 to 200 J/KG could lend to a late spot shower or two, across
far western New York.

It will remain muggy and warm tonight with lows in the mid to upper
60s common. Some patches of fog are possible with dewpoints not much
lower than the air temperature.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Southeasterly flow combined with consensus 850mb temps around +18C
will result in warm weather Friday, with highs approaching 90F
along the Lake Erie shoreline, Buffalo area, and the Genesee
Valley. Meanwhile a potent shortwave will dig across the central
Great Lakes, with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. This will be supported
by the passage of a couple frontal boundaries, DPVA, and the
region being in the right entrance region of a jet streak. A few
strong thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but in general wind
profiles will not be supportive of widespread severe weather.

Following the passage of a cold front, Saturday will be breezy,
especially across the lake plains where southwest winds will gust
over 30 mph. Lingering chances of showers east of Lake Ontario on
Saturday, but the rest of the area should be rain-free and cooler
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure across the Ohio Valley Saturday night will ridge into
the region on Sunday. This will bring fair and generally pleasant
weather to the region with comfortable humidity levels and lots of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface ridging gives fairly high confidence that the area will see
dry weather Sunday night and Monday. Southerly return flow will also
bring a return to warmer weather for Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms area possible Tuesday and
Wednesday period as a mid level trough enters the region and a wave
of low pressure tracks to our north bringing a cold front through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will prevail into much of tonight. A weak
frontal boundary will drop across the region this afternoon,
stalling near the New York/Pennsylvania state line. Any showers
this afternoon and evening along the front will likely stay
just south of KJHW - KELZ.

Convective complex moving out of the Ohio Valley may bring some
scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm after 04z tonight
which may linger across the region through Friday morning. Low
confidence in how this area of precipitation impacts the region.
Humid airmass in place along with light winds tonight could bring
some fog if enough clearing takes place, but confidence is low so
left fog out of the airfield forecasts for now.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.
Friday night...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A passing frontal boundary, followed by weak surface high pressure
will result in a weak pressure gradient across the lower Great
Lakes, with light winds and waves through tonight.

Winds will shift out of the east Friday, then an enhanced southwest
flow will develop across the lower Great Lakes with a period of
Small Craft Advisory headlines possible.

High pressure will build into the region Sunday, reducing the
southwest flow on the lower Great Lakes. The surface high will move
east Monday with a southerly flow favored. The pressure gradient
will be light enough on both Sunday and Monday to allow for some
local lake breezes to form.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel/Fries
LONG TERM...Apffel/TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA