Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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829 FXUS61 KBUF 061841 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 241 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Ohio valley tonight will drift northeast across our forecast area Sunday through Monday. This will assure us of fair dry through the start of the new work week...but then a slow moving cold front will likely generate some rainfall in the form of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. Meanwhile...temperatures that will be close to normal to end the weekend will once again well above normal ahead of the cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Partly to mostly sunny skies will be found throughout much of the region for the rest of the afternoon...although widely separated showers and thunderstorms will still be possible along two main focusing boundaries. While less active than from this morning... a low level convergence zone will stretch from about IAG to ROC with a more active lake breeze boundary that will extend from near JHW northeastward across the Finger Lakes to Oswego county. There will be plenty of instability for the convection to work with in this area with 35- 40kts of bulk shear...so its not out of the question that any given storm could get strong to severe. Otherwise...these are more likely to just be heavy rainers with localized wind gusts to 40 mph. Tonight...high pressure centered over the Ohio valley will slowly drift east and expand across the Lower Great Lakes. After a few early evening showers/storms across the Srn Tier...the sfc high will help to promote fair dry weather. While mild...the mins tonight will be a few degrees lower than those from early this morning as they will range from the upper 50s across much of the Srn Tier to the lower 60s most elsewhere. High pressure over the region Sunday and Sunday night will then guarantee nice weather to end the weekend. The mercury will generally top out in the lower 80s on Sunday with mins in the upper 50s (Srn Tier/Lewis co) to lower 60s Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Monday...the surface ridge will advance to the east with a southerly return flow aloft developing through the day. Though dewpoints will begin to creep upwards, they will still remain fairly comfortable, save for the Finger Lakes/Southeast of Lake Ontario region where the axis of low level moisture will push dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s. However the advection of a warmer airmass (850 hPa temperatures in the mid to upper teens Celsius) and a fair amount of sunshine will bring afternoon highs back into the mid 80s to around 90F. Though Monday should remain dry, the increasing moisture may bring a shower or two Monday night to the Finger Lakes/Southeast of Lake Ontario. Monday night will also return back to the mugginess, with overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tuesday and Tuesday night will likely be the most active timeframe for this period as a mid level trough approaches our region, sending a plume of deeper moisture across our region that will enhance showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and overnight. The continued northward advection of warmth and moisture out ahead of this system will send PWATs back up to between 1.5 and 2.0 inches during Tuesday...and this in tandem with daytime heating and increasing large-scale ascent will support the likelihood of another round of showers and thunderstorms...with the best chances for these likely coming between Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise it should be very warm and humid again before the convection arrives on Tuesday...with highs generally ranging through the 80s and surface dewpoints running between 65 and 70. Latest model consensus supports the initial trailing cold front from this system crossing our area Tuesday night...with a weaker secondary boundary then following suit during Wednesday. Coupled with broad troughing aloft...this may allow some additional scattered showers/isolated storms to persist through Wednesday. Otherwise cooler and more comfortable air will filter back across our region following the passage of the above cold fronts...with highs Wednesday pulling back to the upper 70s/lower 80s...and lows Wednesday night dipping back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. After that...high pressure looks to build across the region Thursday...before sliding out across New England on Friday. This will result in generally dry weather to close out the work week... with continued comfortable temperatures Thursday/Thursday night giving way to warmer readings on Friday. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions through the 18z TAF cycle as surface high pressure slowly builds into the region from the Ohio Valley. Lake breeze boundaries will allow a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist until early this evening. As of about 1730z, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms extending from roughly KIUA to KSDC will continue to translate eastward. This activity is not expected to impact any of the TAF sites, though a few weaker showers west of this boundary may occasionally move across KIAG, KROC, and KJHW through 21z. Shower chances and cloud cover diminish quickly after sunset tonight. Valley fog is expected to develop in the Southern Tier late which will likely cause vsby reductions at KJHW to IFR or lower. Any fog will dissipate following sunrise Sunday morning. Dry weather with some VFR diurnal cumulus expected through the day. Outlook... Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely. Wednesday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Thursday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds will pick up today, following the passage of a cold front. Conditions will approach small craft criteria on Lake Erie today, with southwesterly winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots at times this afternoon. Elsewhere winds pick up but will remain below sca criteria. High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes Sunday and into the start of next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions through mid week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds and limited waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake breezes to form each day. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...JJR/Thomas AVIATION...PP MARINE...Apffel/TMA