709
FXUS61 KBTV 301926
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
326 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will wane through the late afternoon and evening
hours, though scattered showers will linger into the overnight.
Quieter weather is expected for the upcoming week with seasonable
warmth and mostly rain-free conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
this afternoon mainly across south central VT. The bulk of the
activity has been tied to the a prefrontal trough which now lies
across east-central and southeast VT, with scattered showers along
the trailing cold front from the Northeast Kingdom west-
southwestward into the Adirondacks. A few storms with the
trough have been strong to severe, as temperatures well into the
80s and dewpoints in the 60s allowed for ample instability. We
continue to see SB CAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6km shear of
50+ kt, conditions remain favorable for a few strong/severe
thunderstorms. Therefore, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for
eastern VT remains in place until 8 PM. The best chances for
severe thunderstorms will run through about 5 pm, so wouldn`t be
surprised if the watch isn`t able to be cancelled early.

Thunderstorms will wane this evening as we lose daytime heating and
drier air works in behind the cold front. The upper trough will
skirt overhead overnight, so in spite of drier air, do expect
showers will linger through about midnight or so. Otherwise, impacts
from the trough will just be increased cloud cover. Ridging will
begin to build over the area on Monday, leading to clearing skies,
especially by the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler than
today, mainly in the 70s. The dry and cool conditions will continue
Monday night, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...High pressure will be directly overhead on
Tuesday, bringing dry and sunny weather. Winds will be very light as
well. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s. Light winds will
continue into Tuesday night and it should allow for decent
radiational cooling. However, high clouds will be beginning to
stream in from the west. Lows should drop into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...After a dry day on Wednesday, a weakening
cold front passes into the region Wednesday night and brings some
showers and possible embedded thunderstorms. The most likely
solution is that it passes through northern New York in the evening
and through Vermont around and after midnight. However, there is
still decent ensemble spread so put a lot of chance PoPs on either
side for now until confidence grows. While there is a low chance of
thunderstorms, there is no severe risk. The showers have trended to
look a little more scattered compared to yesterday. While the front
will not bring in a dry airmass behind it, it will shunt the ridge
back to the south before it can become entrenched over the area send
the temperatures and humidity to high levels. The formal front
generally dissipates but there will still be a bit of a boundary in
place on Thursday. There is the possibility that a few showers fire
along this but anything would be light and scattered. Overall, the
shower threat for the Fourth of July is decreasing and thunderstorms
are not expected regardless. The boundary looks to push to the south
for Friday and it should be a completely dry day. A area of low
pressure moves into the region for the weekend and brings more
chances of rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Main concern through 00z Monday will be
scattered thunderstorms, mainly at KMPV and KRUT. IFR will be
possible should a thunderstorm move over any terminal, along
with gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will persist through 02z Mon, along with scattered
showers. After 02z, ceilings will lower to 1200-2800 ft, with
IFR potentially possible at KSLK, with showers gradually winding
down overnight. Ceilings improve to VFR by 13z, with skies
clearing from north to south through the remainder of the
period. A cold front shifting through the region from north to
south will allow south/southeast winds to turn to the west and
eventually northwest by 00z Monday. Winds remain gusty to 20 kt
through 00z as well, then remaining 5-10 kt overnight into
Monday morning.


Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Hastings