784
FXUS61 KBTV 042315
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
715 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and mostly dry forecast will prevail heading into the
weekend, but unfortunately the threat for scattered to numerous
showers and embedded thunderstorms returns on Saturday. Temperatures
will continue to be above normal for both the highs and lowers with
increasing levels of humidity, especially Friday night into
Saturday. Slightly cooler and less humid air returns by Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 659 PM EDT Thursday...Very minimal changes with this
update as the forecast remains on track this evening. Continue
with some 15-24% PoPs overnight tonight into Friday for the
shower potential mentioned below. Continue to think patchy fog
could develop across the Connecticut River Valley and other
isolated valley spots. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...Fcst challenge tonight into Friday is
tracking decaying s/w energy over the Ohio Valley into our
region, along with associated pocket of mid level moisture and
the potential for a few light rain showers. Guidance takes the
energy over the northern Ohio Valley and tracks it directly
overhead late tonight into Friday, along with area of mid level
moisture, which is present on water vapor imagery this aftn.
Based on upstream radar coverage have placed some token schc
15-24% pops into the fcst overnight into Friday to cover this
potential. Not anticipating a wetting rainfall or widespread
coverage, mostly a few light rain showers or sprinkles are
possible, with areas of virga likely. Temps tonight hold in the
upper 50s to near 70F in the CPV/SLV. A few areas of patchy fog
possible in the CT River Valley, but given mid level clouds and
mild temps areal cover wl be minimal. For Friday the lake breezy
convergence or trrn could induce a light shower, but forcing is
weak and moisture is minimal, so once again coverage and
potential is small. Progged 925mb temps are very similar to
today with values in the 22-24C, so thinking highs 82-89F.
Another very warm and muggy night is anticipated on Friday night
as southerly winds continue and dwpts hover in the 60s to
locally near 70 possible in the evening. Better dynamics
associated with moisture/warm air advection arrive after
midnight, so have continued with chc to likely pops
overspreading the region on Friday night into Sat morning. CAM
guidance does indicate some elevated instability with MU CAPE
values in the 400- 800 J/kg range, so embedded rumbles of
thunder are possible, especially within the heavier convective
elements aft midnight. Localized brief heavy downpours, some
lightning and isolated gusty winds up to 35 mph are possible
with the stronger activity. Lows generally in the 60s to lower
70s locally here in the CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...For the third Saturday in a row, it looks
like we will see another round of widespread rain showers. A
weakening upper level low is expected to be absorbed into the mean
h500 fields while a weak surface front shears out across the North
Country. This is expected to result in weak surface forcing and weak
dynamic forcing which should yield rather inefficient rainfall
processes through the day although PWATS will be well above 1.75".
With all that being said, rainfall totals will be unimpressive with
much of the area seeing between a quarter to half of inch of
rainfall although portions of the western slopes could see upwards
to three quarters of an inch of rain. Models do suggest we will be
in more of a showery regime which means it likely won`t rain all day
but rather on-and-off throughout the day. Forecast soundings show a
bit of tall and skinny CAPE which could lead to a few rumbles of
thunder and may enhance rainfall rates briefly but thunderstorms
aren`t expected to be widespread by any means. The shearing frontal
boundary is expected to slide east of the region Saturday night
which will bring an end to rainfall across the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday is shaping to be a nicer day
across the North Country although lingering cloud cover and a few
showers cannot be ruled out. Surprisingly, it`ll be a few degrees
cooler than Saturday behind the "cold front" that fell apart as it
tracked across the North Country. Dewpoints on Sunday will remain in
the lower 60s which will lead to heat indices just shy of 90 degrees
so just be aware of some heat and humidity on Sunday. Monday will be
a warm and mostly sunny day across the region. Temperatures will
rise into the mid to upper 80s with a few places approaching 90
degrees in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. Dewpoints
again will remain in the lower 60s with heat indices warming into
the lower 90s for some locations. The NWS heat risk shows us getting
into the moderate range indicating individuals who are sensitive to
heat could experience impacts. As always during the summer months,
be sure to hydrate and take breaks if planning to be outdoors.

Wet weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday although timing remains a
little uncertain. A deepening trough over the central US is expected
to eject a potent shortwave across the Northeast which should bring
in a nice slug of rainfall. While timing is uncertain, confidence is
high in this system moving through the region given consistent
trends amongst the global and deterministic guidance. PWATs ahead of
this system are expected to surge into the 1.75" to 1.9" rain so
it`s feasible to think we could see periods of moderate to heavy
rain as this system move through the region. Showery and seasonably
cool weather is expected to follow for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...High confidence of VFR conditions
prevails for the next 6 hours at all 7 taf sites. This evening
additional mid level clouds will advect from southwest to
northeast across our region with light terrain driven winds
under 6 knots. There is a low probability <15% chance of fog and
IFR or lower conditions at MPV between 07-11z on Friday
morning. Otherwise, a few light showers are possible overnight,
but no flight restrictions are expected. Winds shift after 18Z
for most terminals as a weak front moves through the region
before a stronger system outside this forecast period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber/Storm
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Boyd/Taber