319
FXUS61 KBTV 031136
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
736 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue through today. A frontal boundary
will bring increasing chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms this evening and overnight but, at this time, the
Fourth of July is expected to be mostly dry. Temperatures will
remain seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 733 AM EDT Wednesday...Have mentioned a slight chance of
showers in the St Lawrence valley with some precipitation
tracking from Ontario eastward. No other changes for today`s
forecast. Previous discussion follows.

A surface warm front will lift across our area today, and
warmer and more humid air will settle over the region. The air
near the surface is still quite dry though, so don`t expect any
showers with this frontal passage. Winds will increase from the
south southwest today, especially during the afternoon. Winds
will gust to about 30 mph, especially in the St Lawrence and
Champlain valleys. Winds will die down around sunset with loss
of daytime heating and any surface based instability. Sustained
winds will remain around 10 to 15 mph though. High temperatures
today will be about 5 degrees above seasonal normals for early
July, topping out in the 80s areawide, warmest in the Champlain
valley. During the overnight hours we will have light rain
showers spread across the north country associated with a cold
frontal passage. Showers will be showery in nature. Surface
front will weaken as it moves eastward across the area with loss
of daytime heating. Lack of strong forcing and instability
means not a lot of severe threat, or even thunder beyond just a
slight chance. Brief heavy downpours will be possible due to
high pwats. Minimum temperatures will continue to be mild with
lows ranging through the 60s, some locations in the St Lawrence
valley will not go below 70. Drier weather will return on
Thursday behind departing cold front, though temperatures will
still be quite warm. High temperatures will range through the
80s once again. The forecast is for mainly dry weather for July
4th.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...In the wake of the aforementioned
weak cold front passage, brief high pressure will build into the
region Thursday night into Friday with dry conditions expected
to end the work week. Little airmass changed is expected with
the frontal passage, and late Friday a mainly dry warm front
will swing into the region associated with low pressure tracking
through the Great Lakes. All in all, while dry conditions will
generally prevail through the period, humidity will remain
moderately high with dewpoints in the 60s, and 925mb temps
around +20-22C continuing to support highs in the mid/upper 80s
with a few spot 90s possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...We continue to monitor the
potential for heavy rain from thunderstorms Friday night through
Saturday night as low pressure tracking northeast from the
Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the forecast area.
The 00Z suite of guidance indicates a faster arrival of the
front Friday night into Saturday morning which limits the
potential for strong storms, but also shows a slight northward
push of 2" PWATs so the threat of heavy rain remains. Overall,
ensembles continue to support the best dynamics north of the
region and deepest moisture south, so we may end up okay in the
middle with more moderate rain and general thunder. Time will
tell.

Sunday into Monday drier conditions generally prevail though
some lingering showers are possible Sunday as the system lifts
north through Quebec. Weak ridging develops once again ahead of
another trough digging into the Great Lakes which will renew
chances for showers and thunderstorms again going into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions continue today with some
clouds moving into our area from the west. Winds will pick up
out of the south southwest today. Winds will gust to about 25
kts, especially BTV, PBG and MSS. Dry conditions will continue
through 21z, then showers begin in MSS first and spread eastward
overnight. Only other concern will be a brief period of LLWS
after 00z.

Outlook...

Independence Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will pick up today behind a surface warm front lifting
north through the region and flow becoming southerly behind the
boundary. Winds will gust to about 35 kts on the lake,
especially this evening.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Neiles