719
FXUS61 KBTV 030808
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
408 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue through today. A frontal boundary
will bring increasing chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms this evening and overnight but, at this time, the
Fourth of July is expected to be mostly dry. Temperatures will
remain seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...A surface warm front will lift
across our area today, and warmer and more humid air will settle
over the region. The air near the surface is still quite dry
though, so don`t expect any showers with this frontal passage.
Winds will increase from the south southwest today, especially
during the afternoon. Winds will gust to about 30 mph,
especially in the St Lawrence and Champlain valleys. Winds will
die down around sunset with loss of daytime heating and any
surface based instability. Sustained winds will remain around 10
to 15 mph though. High temperatures today will be about 5
degrees above seasonal normals for early July, topping out in
the 80s areawide, warmest in the Champlain valley. During the
overnight hours we will have light rain showers spread across
the north country associated with a cold frontal passage.
Showers will be showery in nature. Surface front will weaken as
it moves eastward across the area with loss of daytime heating.
Lack of strong forcing and instability means not a lot of severe
threat, or even thunder beyond just a slight chance. Brief
heavy downpours will be possible due to high pwats. Minimum
temperatures will continue to be mild with lows ranging through
the 60s, some locations in the St Lawrence valley will not go
below 70. Drier weather will return on Thursday behind departing
cold front, though temperatures will still be quite warm. High
temperatures will range through the 80s once again. The forecast
is for mainly dry weather for July 4th.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...In the wake of the aforementioned
weak cold front passage, brief high pressure will build into the
region Thursday night into Friday with dry conditions expected
to end the work week. Little airmass changed is expected with
the frontal passage, and late Friday a mainly dry warm front
will swing into the region associated with low pressure tracking
through the Great Lakes. All in all, while dry conditions will
generally prevail through the period, humidity will remain
moderately high with dewpoints in the 60s, and 925mb temps
around +20-22C continuing to support highs in the mid/upper 80s
with a few spot 90s possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...We continue to monitor the
potential for heavy rain from thunderstorms Friday night through
Saturday night as low pressure tracking northeast from the
Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the forecast area.
The 00Z suite of guidance indicates a faster arrival of the
front Friday night into Saturday morning which limits the
potential for strong storms, but also shows a slight northward
push of 2" PWATs so the threat of heavy rain remains. Overall,
ensembles continue to support the best dynamics north of the
region and deepest moisture south, so we may end up okay in the
middle with more moderate rain and general thunder. Time will
tell.

Sunday into Monday drier conditions generally prevail though
some lingering showers are possible Sunday as the system lifts
north through Quebec. Weak ridging develops once again ahead of
another trough digging into the Great Lakes which will renew
chances for showers and thunderstorms again going into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Pervasive VFR continues with high clouds
edging in west to east overnight. Winds will become gusty out
of the south this afternoon. Gusts 20-25kts will likely be
common for BTV/PBG/MSS. Otherwise, dry conditions continue
through the period until 21Z for MSS when the first showers will
be moving east out of Canada. Only other concern will be a
brief period of LLWS after 00z.

Outlook...

Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will pick up today behind a surface warm front lifting
north through the region and flow becoming southerly behind the
boundary. Winds will gust to about 35 kts on the lake,
especially this evening.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...